hack-house/OVERSEER-STATUS.md

# OVERSEER-STATUS — sor-consent build agent

> **RQ2-P3 gate RE-WORDED + RE-RUN GREEN — awaiting human freeze sign-off (§10) (2026-07-21,
> operator-ruled).** Per overseer ruling, `rq2p3-mechanism-prereg.md` §7 items 1–2 were re-worded
> pre-freeze (naive-funnel → mechanical-mix under the ratified posterior) + a §7 scope note added
> (the gate validates the INSTRUMENT, must NOT pre-assert the H-vs-c sign — that stays the
> two-sided confirmatory question). Deviation logged transparently in
> `docs/stage-05-rq2p3-gate-clarification.md`. Re-run: **all four items PASS with real teeth** —
> item 1 regressed on the FROZEN `bridge-federated` branch (unique sig → m_i=1 → H≈0, constant
> c=1/C); item 2 B=1 → c=1.0 AND H=2.54 bits HIGH (maximal mix); items 3 (monotonicity) & 4
> (entropy) PASS. Confirmatory H1/H2 direction-agnosticism UNCHANGED (no HARKing). **FREEZE STAYS
> A HUMAN GATE:** §10 empty, no confirmatory RQ2-P3 cell runs until Andre records the SHA-256 +
> signs off. Honest disclosure the paper must carry: the dry pass already previews a mix (ρ
> 0→+0.838), so the confirmatory battery quantifies a dose-response already visible at
> calibration — stated openly; the two-sided pre-commitment stands. Lead prereg SHA f22331a72e…
> UNTOUCHED; worktree-only.

RQ2 RATIFIED (operator Andre, 2026-07-20, while blind) — observation-consistent-set + uniform-mass per-circuit posterior; docs/stage-05-rq2-posterior-clarification.md flipped PROPOSED→RATIFIED. Offline loader built + synthetic-tested. BLIND HOLD REMAINS: no real RQ2 result until the battery completes.


- 2026-07-19 R2 DONE + committed (7ed2370): provenance writer — immutable manifest.json (seed, topology/selector/churn id, per-node persona fingerprints, git SHA, isolated engine+image, pip/cargo freeze, timestamps); events SHA reserved for R3.
- Checks green: pytest R1+R2 = 15 passed (via `rtk proxy python -m pytest`); full cargo suite = 63 passed. Cross-language fingerprint parity locked (persona.rs <-> provenance.py). Deps installed into worktree venv.
- 2026-07-19 R3 DONE + committed (a9308ed): append-only events.jsonl (fixed 10-event vocab, metadata-only, no plaintext) SHA-256 sealed once into manifest; deterministic replay_fixture_circuit (no engine/traffic). Provenance spine R1->R2->R3 = protect-first minimum unit, GREEN. Checks: pytest sor suite 21 passed; cargo 63 passed.
- 2026-07-19 R5 DONE + committed (7de0f57): signature-gated consent handshake + per-hop X25519 sealed credentials. crypto.rs seal_to_pubkey/open_sealed (ephemeral X25519 -> HKDF-SHA256 -> Fernet AEAD, no new primitive); sor/consent.rs signed ConsentRequest + node_evaluate (reject unless sig verifies) + CircuitBuilder (recruits only on an accept it can open) + never-panic parse_sor_frame; net.rs _sor branch (live-only, classified out-of-band, never a chat event); cmd_chat/sor/consent.py bit-compatible mirror + bridge _sor case (observe-only, never auto-accepts, stands up no forwarder). Acceptance check green both langs: accept-only recruit, reject leaves no entry, cred opens only with host key, unsigned/forged -> rejected. Cross-language KDF parity pinned by shared known-answer vector. Rust 75 passed; Python SOR suite 37 passed.
- 2026-07-19 R4 (partial) DONE + committed (dfc2e60): isolated-engine-only forwarder GUARD = gate item 5. forwarder.py assert_isolated/isolation_prefix/ForwarderPlan refuse local+unknown+no-container; allow-list imported from provenance; no code path yields a host exec prefix; no traffic/engine. Python forwarder suite 12 passed. Traffic-moving half (gate item 1) NOT built — HELD.
- 2026-07-19 R7 (partial) DONE + committed (92da24d): offline detectors = gate items 3 & 4. analysis/detectors.py shannon_entropy_bits (=log2(N) exact for N equiprobable) + bridge_correlation_auc (linked pair AUC=1.0; unlinked unbiased, 40-seed mean 0.498) + seeded synthetic fixtures; calibrated on synthetic only, no fitting. Python SOR suite 66 passed. churn/selector/metrics.json NOT built — HELD.
- 2026-07-19 R4 (e2e half) DONE + committed (a78441b): gate item 1 GREEN. forwarder.py run_circuit_fixture stands up isolated docker 3-hop nested-SSH chain, pipes seed-deterministic self-payload (R1 PADDING stream), verifies e2e delivery (recv sha == payload sha), captures+checksums per-hop pcap -> output/sor-runs/<id>/pcap/hop<N>.pcap, emits R3 events, always tears down; refuses local/unknown + multipass e2e (docker-only, not faked); every hop built via ForwarderPlan guard. Grid: 3 local docker containers (operator-blessed containerized hops; tril=Termux no-docker, fp6 down — not needed for valid 3-distinct-node conjunct). Adds sor-hop fixture image + docker-gated test (skips w/o daemon). Live 3-hop delivery verified, clean teardown. e2e suite 5 passed; full offline SOR suite 66 passed.
- 2026-07-19 R6 DONE + committed (21263da): multi-house federation. federation.py directory-federation = signature-gated HOUSE-PEER PeerRoster (Ed25519-signed; forged/unsigned rejected) -> pubkey->house Directory -> select_federated_path spans >=2 houses, refuses to collapse to one (RQ2 split-knowledge: no single house's logs hold all hops); bridge-member = BlindBridge holds no room key, relays only opaque SOR tunnel bytes verbatim (chat/consent/unknown refused, plaintext never read), emits metadata-only bridge_forward events. Offline-verifiable (no socket/engine/external target). Federation suite 10 passed.
- 2026-07-19 R7 (live halves) DONE + committed (12fd253): churn.py seeded kill/spawn schedule (pure data, no real VM ops); selector.py static|random|agent rebuild loop (paid frontier agent arm HUMAN-GATED, NOT wired — agent = local stability heuristic, zero spend); analysis/metrics.py -> schema-valid write-once metrics.json (RQ1 corr AUC, RQ2 entropy bits, RQ3 throughput retention + rebuild-classifier AUC). Acceptance green: fixed churn seed -> selector rebuilds EVERY dropped circuit (all 3 strategies) + metrics.json produced. Selector suite 11 passed; full SOR suite 92 passed (incl live 3-hop e2e).
- GATE STATUS: 6/6 instrument-validation items GREEN. ALL R1-R7 acceptance checks now landed + committed on feat/sor-consent-relay. Instrument is build-complete. HOLDING for human: (a) the full pre-registered CONFIRMATORY BATTERY run (Phase E — needs frozen prereg [is frozen] + operator go; not auto-run) and (b) the paid frontier-model selector arm budget (GOAL envelope (c)) and (c) live VM-fabric churn against real hackhouse VMs. Containment intact; worktree-only.
- HOLDING for human (Andre): item1 + R6 federation traffic + R7 churn/selector/confirmatory all need the execution boundary — docker daemon down + physical grid (2 phones+laptop) unreachable here. Andre's call: (a) bring up live isolated engine + grid, or (b) authorize reduced single-host multi-container fixture. No confirmatory battery (prereg frozen). All offline-validatable units are now landed.
- 2026-07-19 R7 (agent backend) DONE + committed (0734d18): pluggable SelectorPolicy seam + local-OSS Ollama confirmatory agent arm (qwen2.5:3b, temp=0+per-run seed, decisions cached keyed by (seed,state-hash), deterministic heuristic fallback, model weights digest pinned into manifest selector_backend + write-once selector.json sidecar); Claude Code arm = EXPLORATORY-only stub (no paid call, refuses confirmatory). Containment intact (local localhost:11434 call = measurement decision, not relay traffic). R3 event vocab UNCHANGED. Suite: 22 passed incl 2 live-Ollama cells. Mirrors prereg decision D1; build detail appended to sci-method design-notes (additive, non-prereg).
- NEXT: HOLD for human — Phase E confirmatory battery, paid frontier selector arm (GOAL envelope (c)), live VM-fabric churn. BLOCKERS: none for build (instrument complete).
- Containment intact; prereg untouched (SHA f22331a72e...); worktree-only on feat/sor-consent-relay.
- 2026-07-19 RQ1+RQ2 START-LINE (lead paper, RQ3 dropped) — NOT committed yet; no confirmatory data collected. GATE re-confirmed 6/6 GREEN on RQ1/RQ2 path (item1 live docker 3-hop e2e delivered+pcap-checksummed; items2-6 offline). Artifacts: output/sor-startline/<ts>/{gate/gate-report.json, grid/device-map.json, plan/cell-plan.json, dry/dry-pass.json}.
- Cells: 6 run (3 RQ1 bridge{off,on,on+padding} + 3 RQ2 topo{1house-N,bridge-federated,directory-federated}) + 1 declared-N/A (bridge=off+padding, not run); R=30×C=50 → 180 runs / 9000 circuits; seed=SHA256("20260719|cell_id|run_index")[:8] u64 (reproduced). Matched-N pinned from containerised node count at run time.
- Grid pin (probed NOW): docker 27.5.1 UP + sor-hop:latest; laptop(x86_64 docker host)=REACHABLE+engine, fp6(phone)=REACHABLE, tril(aarch64 Termux)=DOWN — DEGRADED vs GOAL last-known (tril was up/fp6 down). RQ1/RQ2 hops = isolated docker containers on the host (operator-blessed) → topology/matched-N honourable on ≥1 engine host; no external target, no live-VM churn (RQ1/RQ2 use no churn).
- Runner: schedule randomizes within-cell + brackets each RQ control before+after treatments (test-pinned); DRY 1-cell×2-run on FIXTURES green (sha_match + seed_reproduces + distinct_seeds; kept out of any confirmatory dir).
- Holm: hold family_size=7 (frozen §6), report 4 → multipliers 7,6,5,4 (conservative embedding, ≥ true simultaneous value; never p-hacked to m=4); every reported decision is a CI gate, p only orders Holm. PROPOSED doc docs/stage-05-holm-clarification.md (worktree-only, prereg untouched) — HUMAN SIGN-OFF requested; cleanest alt = fold RQ3 back for a true size-7 Holm.
- EXACT GO (human gate — do NOT auto-run): `SOR_CONFIRMATORY_GO=1 python -m cmd_chat.sor.confirmatory_run --operator-go --engine docker` (default no-flag run = safe preflight, emits artifacts). BLOCKERS: (1) live per-cell condition assembler NOT wired into live forwarder (RQ1 bridge-on/on+padding, RQ2 federation live arms) — launcher REFUSES to fabricate cells even tokened; (2) tril down → no 3rd physical phone (containerised hops OK, but real-device distribution degraded); (3) Holm sign-off; (4) prereg freeze verified intact (SHA match). New: cmd_chat/sor/{gate,grid,confirmatory_run}.py + tests; full SOR suite 143 passed.
- 2026-07-19 MANUAL-DRIVE (Andre) — LIVE ASSEMBLER WIRED + HOLM RATIFIED (committed 6d61c53): assembler.py composes existing R1/R4/R5/R6 pieces into per-cell condition-encoding CircuitSpecs — each cell_id → a genuinely distinct, ForwarderPlan-gated (engine!=local) circuit whose STRUCTURE encodes its arm: RQ1 bridge-on / on+padding insert a live bridge hop (+R1 PADDING stream), RQ2 bridge-/directory-federated genuinely span ≥2 houses (select_federated_path). Plans only — no socket, no traffic, no engine.
- Dry-check GREEN on FIXTURES (battery.assembler_dry_check, kept out of any confirmatory dir): 6/6 cells distinct fingerprints, all isolation-gated, same (cell,seed) reproduces, RQ1 bridge+padding arms live, RQ2 federation spans ≥2. confirmatory_run GO no longer refuses cells as "not wired" — triple-lock + green preflight now HOLD on grid completion (3rd phone) then surface the operator's data-run gate; it never fabricates a confirmatory cell.
- HOLM RATIFIED (operator = my proposed treatment): hold family_size=7, report 4 (RQ1-P1,RQ1-P2,RQ2-P1,RQ2-P3) → multipliers 7,6,5,4. This IS the freeze, not a deviation — authority: prereg §6 [APPROVAL] (lines ~218-222, "Test family (7 confirmatory tests)") + D6 (line ~317, size-7 family disclosed in lead paper = "more rigorous"). docs/stage-05-holm-clarification.md updated to RATIFIED; RQ3-fold + α-split declined per operator.
- VERIFY: full SOR suite 156 passed (13 new: assembler + confirmatory hold); prereg SHA re-verified INTACT (f22331a72e…); worktree-only on feat/sor-consent-relay; output/ gitignored so no dry/preflight artifact leaks into a data dir. NO confirmatory data collected.
- STILL HUMAN-GATED (do NOT auto-run): same EXACT GO command above. Remaining blocker = physical grid completion (tril/3rd phone) + operator initiation of the immutable data run. Instrument + live assembler build-complete; prereg untouched. Flagging none against paper quality.
- 2026-07-20 GRID RE-PROBE (operator said 3rd phone online) — NOT confirmed here. Live map → output/sor-startline/20260720T043944Z/grid/device-map.json: laptop=SSH+isolated docker 27.5.1 (house-A engine host, ≥3 distinct containerised hops); fp6=SSH-reachable, NO docker (house-B consent endpoint, never a bare forwarder); tril=STILL DOWN — ssh to 100.95.180.14:8022 CONNECTION TIMED OUT (not paper-papered). reachable=2/3, engine_hosts=1, degraded=True.
- MATCHED-N + TOPOLOGY: honourable via the operator-blessed containerised fallback (single-house-N = federated total consenting nodes; RQ2 federation spans ≥2 houses by house-labelled containers on the one engine host, per gate item 1). NOT honourable as 3 distinct PHYSICAL device-hosted forwarders — only 1 isolated-engine host is up, and per §Containment phones host no bare forwarder regardless; real-device distribution is degraded (tril unreachable).
- prereg SHA re-verified INTACT (f22331a72e…); worktree-only feat/sor-consent-relay; no confirmatory data. Triple-lock: freeze-SHA=ARMED, isolation(docker!=local)=ARMED, operator-token=NOT set (operator's gate). STOPPED — did NOT run the battery.
- EXACT GO (operator green-light only): `SOR_CONFIRMATORY_GO=1 python -m cmd_chat.sor.confirmatory_run --operator-go --engine docker`. BLOCKER: tril/3rd phone SSH-unreachable (timeout @100.95.180.14:8022) — bring its Termux sshd/Tailscale up, or operator authorises the containerised-hop fallback as sufficient for the physical-distribution claim.
- 2026-07-20 GRID NOW FULL — tril back up (ssh OK, aarch64). Re-probe output/sor-startline/20260720T051333Z/grid/device-map.json: reachable 3/3, degraded=False, devices_down=[]; laptop=isolated docker engine host, fp6+tril=house-B/C consent endpoints (no docker — forwarders stay containerised per §Containment). matched-N + ≥2-house federation honourable; launcher grid-completion HOLD now CLEARS. Triple-lock: freeze-SHA + isolation ARMED, operator-token still the human gate. prereg SHA INTACT; worktree-only; no data collected. Battery NOT run — awaiting operator GO.
- 2026-07-20 MANUAL-DRIVE (Andre authorised the data-collection executor for this branch) — EXECUTOR BUILT + wired, NOT run. cmd_chat/sor/executor.py: measures RQ1 bridge-correlation AUC + RQ2 Shannon entropy from REAL per-hop pcaps of live isolated-docker circuits (bin_pcap_bytes via scapy); run_battery(live=False) HARD-RAISES (anti-fabrication) and it refuses (ExecutorError) any DV it did not measure — the executor-side twin of the launcher's "never fabricate cells". Wired into confirmatory_run tokened GO (real executor.run_battery(live=True) behind triple-lock + preflight_ready + grid_full).
- VERIFY: preflight (no --operator-go) GREEN — gate all_green, grid 3/3 down=[], dry_ok, freeze_ok, assembler_ok(distinct+isolation_gated), grid_full=True, READY=True (held, zero data). Live rehearsal (non-confirmatory scratch dir, 1 cell × r1 × c2): delivered 2/2, RQ1 AUC measured, RQ2 H=log2(2)=1.0, measured_from=live-docker-pcap. Tests: test_sor_executor.py 7 + confirmatory_run + full SOR suite = 163 passed. prereg SHA INTACT (f22331a72e…); worktree-only.
- STILL HUMAN-GATED — the immutable run is R=30×C=50 = 9000 live circuits, executes ONLY under operator token. EXACT GO: `SOR_CONFIRMATORY_GO=1 python -m cmd_chat.sor.confirmatory_run --operator-go --engine docker`. Triple-lock: freeze-SHA + isolation(docker!=local) ARMED, operator-token = operator's gate. No confirmatory data collected. BLOCKER: none — awaiting operator's explicit "GO: build+run confirmatory".
- 2026-07-20 OPERATOR GREEN-LIGHT + delegated overnight drive → paper. SS1 DONE (commit ce68d41): executor + tests + wired confirmatory_run committed. Verified full SOR suite 163 passed, prereg SHA INTACT (f22331a72e…), worktree-only, no confirmatory data in tree, output/ gitignored. NEXT: SS2 fire the confirmatory battery under token.
- 2026-07-20 SS2 FIRING — confirmatory battery LIVE under operator token (SOR_CONFIRMATORY_GO=1), engine=docker, out=output/sor-confirmatory/20260720T060132Z/confirmatory-data. Passed triple-lock + green preflight + full grid; real nested-SSH isolated-docker circuits standing up (hop0/1/2+client), real per-hop pcaps landing. Frozen §4 R=30×C=50=9000 circuits HONORED (NOT trimmed). Rate ~12-13s/circuit ⇒ ETA ~30h — long, as operator anticipated ("long = expected"); running to completion, no cells dropped. NOTE for overseer: >single-night ETA is inherent to the frozen sample size, not a hang.
- Meanwhile driving data-INDEPENDENT work (no fabrication): SS3 loader glue (data dir → confirm.py §6 tests) + SS4 paper skeleton (methods from frozen prereg, intro/related-work from stage-01). Results stay empty until real data lands.
- 2026-07-20 SS3 (RQ1 half) DONE + committed: cmd_chat/sor/analysis/confirm_load.py reconstructs the RQ1 (entry,exit) circuit-pair set from the REAL per-hop pcaps (bin_pcap_bytes → score_matrix; diagonal=linked, off-diag=unlinked) so confirm.rq1_p1_leak scores measured data — the fully frozen-specified §4 unit. classify_run reads persisted metrics.json; collect_rq1_p1_pairs selects only bridge=on no-pad runs. Plumbing unit-tested on SYNTHETIC pcaps (test_sor_confirm_load.py, 3 passed) — no confirmatory data touched (prereg §2 blinding: no inspecting intermediate results before the battery completes). RQ1-P2 nopad/pad pairing + all RQ2 HELD for the ruling (top-of-file NEEDS-OPERATOR).
- BATTERY PROGRESS: healthy + running; 1 full (cell,run)=50 circuits ≈ 14 min ⇒ full 180-run / 9000-circuit battery ETA ≈ 42h (frozen §4 R=30×C=50, NOT trimmed). This exceeds a single night — inherent to the frozen sample size; overseer/operator call whether to let it run to completion (~1.8 days) or intervene. No cells dropped; teardown clean each circuit.
- DRIVE STATE: SS1 ✅, SS2 firing ✅, SS3-RQ1 ✅. GATED: SS3-RQ2 + RQ1-P2 pairing on the RQ2 ruling; SS4 paper + SS5 review on (a) battery completion (blinding) AND (b) the RQ2 ruling. Cannot proceed further without fabricating/guessing (forbidden) or breaking blinding (forbidden). Awaiting operator RQ2 ruling; loop to nudge.
- 2026-07-20 OVERSEER RULED DIRECTION=A (fill the gap, reject B/C). DRAFTED docs/stage-05-rq2-posterior-clarification.md — PROPOSED (operator-ratification PENDING), blind pre-spec (battery still running, ZERO RQ2 numbers computed). Rule: adversary observes exit-bridge/house → uniform posterior over the observation-consistent anonymity set A_i → per-circuit H_i=MM(log2 m_i) [Serjantov2002 S=2^H, Diaz2002 d=H/log2 N]; makes RQ2-P1 (ΔH, two-sided) + RQ2-P3 (Spearman) computable OFFLINE from per_circuit_seeds + deterministic assemble(). Grounded in cited lit only; sign not presumed; frozen prereg untouched.
- HARD HOLD honored: no RQ2 confirmatory statistic computed/inspected/reported until Andre ratifies. RQ1 loader ready; SS4 skeleton next (data-independent). Battery: 442→ /9000 circuits, RUNNING, healthy.
- BATTERY MONITORING CAVEAT (for the loop): the SS2 launch wrapper reported a benign exit-1 (a trailing `echo > .current-ts` error) — the battery itself is VERIFIED HEALTHY and progressing (spot-checked 66→69 circuits/25s, docker hops cycling, python PID 2539198 alive under wrapper 2539195). Because that background task is now closed, COMPLETION WILL NOT AUTO-NOTIFY. Detect completion by: `output/sor-confirmatory/20260720T060132Z/confirmatory-data/battery-results.json` present AND hop0.pcap count == 9000 (currently ~69). Do NOT re-launch (would duplicate/waste progress). Resume SS3 analysis (post-blinding) only after completion + the RQ2 ruling.
- 2026-07-20 SS4 (data-independent draft) DONE + committed: docs/stage-07-paper-draft.md — lead paper (G4+RQ1+RQ2). Written BLIND (battery still running, zero confirmatory numbers seen): Abstract skeleton, Intro (G4 consent-gate novelty + RQ1 bridge-leak / RQ2 funnelling motivation), Related Work (onion/SOR [Egners2012], correlation [NasrBH18/OhYMH22], anonymity metrics [Serjantov2002/Diaz2002], social-trust G4 neighbours), full Methods from frozen prereg §2-§6 (design matrix, DVs, R=30×C=50, frozen detectors + §5 gate, Holm family=7 report-4), Limitations from §7, References. Results §5 + Discussion §6 = HELD-BLIND placeholders; RQ2 subsections additionally RATIFICATION-GATED (posterior proposal pending). No prereg edit; no RQ2 number.
- DRIVE STATE: SS1 ✅ SS2 firing ✅ SS3-RQ1 ✅ RQ2-proposal ✅ SS4-skeleton ✅. Battery: 492/9000, RUNNING healthy (PID 2539198). REMAINING GATES: SS3-RQ2 + RQ1-P2 pairing on Andre's RQ2 ratification; SS4 Results/Discussion + SS5 review on (a) battery completion (blinding) AND (b) RQ2 ratification. All data-independent overnight work now exhausted without fabricating or breaking blinding.
- 2026-07-20 RQ2 RATIFIED + offline loader DONE + committed: docs/stage-05-rq2-posterior-clarification.md flipped PROPOSED→RATIFIED (operator Andre, while BLIND — 0 RQ2 stats computed). Built cmd_chat/sor/analysis/confirm_load_rq2.py: reconstructs each circuit's spec OFFLINE from per_circuit_seeds via deterministic assemble(), derives the observation-consistent anonymity set A_i (uniform/max-entropy → [1]*m_i), per-circuit H_i=Miller–Madow, and the willing-bridge concentration series — feeding confirm.rq2_p1_delta_h (ΔH two-sided) + rq2_p3_funnel (Spearman). Unit-tested on SYNTHETIC specs/seeds ONLY (test_sor_confirm_load_rq2.py, 6 passed; full SOR suite 172 passed). NEEDS-OPERATOR banner removed (resolved).
- HARD BLIND HOLD STILL ON: collect_rq2_p1_arms/collect_rq2_p3 are BLIND-GATED — NOT run on real data; no RQ2-P1/P2/P3 result computed/inspected/reported until battery completes. Battery: 3816/9000 (~42%), alive, healthy. INSTRUMENT CAVEAT for SS5: bridge-federated assigns a fresh bridge per circuit seed ⇒ willing-bridge reuse is minimal ⇒ P3 concentration may be near-degenerate as-instrumented (an honest, reportable property — loader does not fix it).
- 2026-07-20 RQ1-P2 PAIRING RESOLVED = by run_index (overseer ruling, freeze-DERIVED — the Holm case, not the RQ2 gap-fill). docs/stage-05-rq1p2-pairing-clarification.md drafted: cites frozen §6 L197-198 (paired mandated), §4 L108 (RQ1 unit=AUC over the pair set ⇒ pairable unit is the RUN not the circuit), §4 L111 (R=30 balanced), §3 L97 (interleaving indexes shared session position); status RATIFIED-by-derivation / PROPOSED for Andre (low-risk, non-blocking); prereg UNTOUCHED.
- Loader wired: confirm_load.collect_rq1_p2_paired maps each run_index present in BOTH bridge=on (no-pad) & bridge=on+padding arms → one confirm.PairedCircuit (its two arms' pair sets), fed to the FROZEN confirm.rq1_p2_padding (§6 arm-level ΔAUC preserved; decision layer untouched); per_run_delta_aucs exposes the auditable per-run ΔAUC_i diagnostic; missing-arm run indices are simply unpaired (frozen R NOT redefined; inconclusive if too few remain).
- Unit-tested SYNTHETIC pcaps ONLY (test_sor_confirm_load_rq1p2.py, 4 passed: pair-by-run-index, positive ΔAUC_i when padding flattens, feeds frozen rq1_p2_padding CI>0, graceful missing-arm); full SOR suite 176 passed. No confirmatory record read (prereg §2 blinding: unblocks CODE not RESULTS).
- HARD BLIND HOLD REMAINS: no real RQ1-P2 number until battery completes (battery ~78/180 runs ≈ 43%, alive PID 2539198). prereg SHA INTACT (f22331a72e…); worktree-only feat/sor-consent-relay.
- 2026-07-20 SS2 BATTERY COMPLETE 180/180 cells + RAW DATA FROZEN (committed). Integrity PASS: 180 cell dirs, each metrics.json+manifest.json+non-empty circuits/, 0 missing per-hop pcaps (27000 pcaps + 9000 events.jsonl); seed provenance verified 180/180 (seed==SHA256(S0=20260719‖cell_id‖run_index)); no aggregate battery-results.json (expected, NOT fabricated — 180-cell count is the frozen completion proxy).
- ARM BALANCE (R=30 held exactly): 6 design cells × 30 runs = RQ1{bridge=off,on,on+padding}=30 each + RQ2{1house-N,bridge-federated,directory-federated}=30 each (RQ1=90, RQ2=90; RQ3 not in frozen lattice). Battery window ≈ 2026-07-20T06:11:41Z→2026-07-21T05:24:09Z (~23h).
- IMMUTABILITY ANCHOR: output/…/SHA256SUMS.txt = SHA-256 over 36361 raw artifacts (sorted rel paths), digest 3fb67c7a…; provenance.json (S0+seed formula, executor SHA ce68d41, engine=docker image_digest=null@runtime, timestamps, completion proxy) + INTEGRITY-REPORT.md. Freeze anchors force-added (/output/ gitignored → raw data stays out of git). Raw metrics.json IMMUTABLE, not recomputed.
- BLINDING LIFTED for code-on-real-data; SS2 touched STRUCTURE/CHECKSUM/PROVENANCE ONLY — NO AUC/H/CI computed or inspected. NEXT=SS3 frozen-§6 inferential pass (RQ1-P1/P2 + RQ2-P1/P3 + Holm family=7) in one auditable run. prereg SHA INTACT; worktree-only.
- 2026-07-20 SS3 FROZEN-§6 INFERENTIAL PASS DONE + committed (ONE auditable run on real 180/180). Calibration gate PASS (linked AUC 1.0000, unlinked 0.5036 on §5 fixtures) ⇒ AUCs reportable. HONEST-NULL/NEGATIVE result set, reported with no spin: RQ1-P1 AUC 0.4660 CI[0.4523,0.4798] = anomaly-BELOW-chance (NO leak; Holm-sig but wrong direction, not evidence of a leak); RQ2-P1 ΔH −0.9587 bits CI[−1.056,−0.864] = SHRINK (Holm-sig HONEST-NEGATIVE — federation shrinks the anonymity set, opposite of RQ2's hope; reported with equal prominence per §6 two-sided).
- RQ1-P2 ΔAUC +0.0113 CI[−0.0025,+0.0234] padding-ineffective (raw p 0.091, Holm adj-p 0.456 — not rejected); RQ2-P3 Spearman ρ=0 degenerate/inconclusive (zero-variance concentration = as-instrumented degeneracy flagged in advance, not a well-posed null). Holm family=7 report-4 (multipliers 7,6,5,4); only RQ1-P1 + RQ2-P1 survive @ α=.05.
- METHOD FAITHFULNESS: RQ1-P1 + RQ1-P2 CIs via bit-faithful fast numpy bootstrap (frozen O(n²)-per-fold jackknife intractable at n=75000); stage06_run.py --verify PROVES both == frozen stats.bootstrap_ci bit-for-bit (point/lo/hi/method within 1e-12, incl tie path). RQ2-P1/P3 left on frozen confirm.* paths (tractable). Ran ONLY pre-registered tests; frozen prereg SHA INTACT. Artifacts: docs/stage-06-analysis.md + output/…/analysis/stage06-results.json (force-added; /output/ gitignored). NEXT=SS4 Results/Discussion.
- 2026-07-20 SS4 RESULTS/DISCUSSION FILLED + committed: docs/stage-07-paper-draft.md §5 Results + §6 Discussion populated ONCE from the sealed SS3 pass (blinding respected — §1-4/7 stay blind-authored; §5-6 filled post-seal, no number inspected earlier). Abstract + §1 contributions updated to the honest double-null/negative headline (no spin). Zero HELD/BLIND/PROPOSED placeholders remain.
- Filled faithfully to frozen §6: §5.1 calibration gate PASS (linked 1.0000/unlinked 0.5036); §5.2 RQ1-P1 AUC 0.466 anomaly-below-chance = NO leak, RQ1-P2 ΔAUC +0.011 padding-ineffective (moot, no leak to close); §5.3 RQ2-P1 ΔH −0.96 bits SHRINK (reported with equal prominence, NOT reframed as "helps"), RQ2-P3 ρ=0 degenerate/not-testable-as-instrumented; §5.4 Holm table (only RQ1-P1+RQ2-P1 survive). §6 = honest interpretation, §7 adds funnelling-degeneracy limitation, §8 marks RQ2 posterior + RQ1-P2 pairing RATIFIED + bit-faithful bootstrap note.
- prereg SHA INTACT (f22331a72e…); worktree-only. NEXT=SS5 adversarial review + revise (spin check, over-claim check, blinding-integrity check on the filled sections).
- 2026-07-20 SS5 ADVERSARIAL REVIEW DONE + committed: docs/stage-08-adversarial-review.md — self red-team of the filled paper vs stage06-results.json (no new stat, no raw-data touch, prereg untouched). PASS on: number fidelity (every abstract/§5 figure matches JSON to precision), Holm arithmetic (7,6,5,4; only RQ1-P1+RQ2-P1 survive), spin/over-claim (no-leak framing, honest-negative equal-prominence, lab-scope disclaimers), blinding integrity (§5-6 filled once post-seal), method-substitution (bit-faithful --verify).
- 1 DEFECT FOUND + FIXED (prose only, ZERO numbers changed): RQ1-P1's below-chance AUC was wrongly attributed to "the bridge padding stream flattening" — but assembler.py sets padding_applied=(bridge=="on+padding"), so the no-pad RQ1-P1 arm carries NO cover stream. Corrected docs/stage-06-analysis.md + paper §5.2/§6 to state it's an unexplained pooled-correlator artifact, explicitly NOT padding. Point/CI/gate/Holm untouched.
- STEPPING STONES COMPLETE: SS1 executor ✅ SS2 battery+freeze ✅ SS3 §6 pass ✅ SS4 paper fill ✅ SS5 red-team ✅. Honest double-null/negative lead paper ready for operator review. prereg SHA INTACT; worktree-only feat/sor-consent-relay.
- 2026-07-21 RQ2-P3 MECHANISM INSTRUMENT BUILT + committed: assembler.py `bridge-federated-pool` topology (finite willing-bridge pool size B under Zipf willingness skew α; per-circuit draw idx=weighted_draw(sha256("sor-bridge-pool|{seed}"), zipf_weights(B,α)) → bridge#{idx:02d}) + helpers `zipf_weights`/`weighted_draw`; existing lead `bridge-federated` branch UNTOUCHED (still fresh-bridge-per-seed, bit-reproducible). battery.enumerate_rq2p3_cells() = B∈{2,4,8}×α∈{0,1,2} + anchor B=50,α=0, tagged RQ2P3 (SEPARATE fn; frozen 6-cell lattice unmutated). analysis/rq2p3_calibration.py = DRY synthetic-only §7 gate (no confirmatory record read). confirm_load_rq2.py/confirm.py/stats.py UNCHANGED.
- CALIBRATION GATE RAN (§7, DRY): item3 monotonicity PASS (top-3 conc ↓ in B, ↑ in α), item4 entropy PASS (plug-in=log2N exact). item1 + item2 DO NOT match naive wording → MIX not funnel (see top-of-file NEEDS-OPERATOR): anchor ρ=+0.838, B=1 H=2.54 bits HIGH, all 10 sweep ρ≥0. Surfaced, not reconciled. Tests: tests/test_sor_rq2p3_pool.py 9 passed; full SOR suite 185 passed (lead bridge-federated fingerprint reproducible — no regression).
- HARD HOLD: no RQ2-P3 confirmatory battery, no `rq2p3-mechanism-prereg.md` freeze (§10 block still empty) — operator-gated on the item-1/2 re-word decision. Lead prereg SHA f22331a72e… INTACT; containment intact (synthetic-only, no engine/traffic); worktree-only. NEXT (operator-gated): RQ3 executor wiring, only after this ruling.
- 2026-07-21 OVERSEER RULED (Andre): STOP + diagnosis correct; items 1–2 were WORDED under the naive-funnel prior, not broken. Re-worded `rq2p3-mechanism-prereg.md` §7 pre-freeze — item 1 re-anchored on the FROZEN `bridge-federated` branch (injective fresh-bridge → m_i=1 → H≈0, c=1/C; a pool draws with replacement so it can't/mustn't reproduce that); item 2 B=1 → c=1.0 AND high H (maximal mix, "low H" refuted by construction); added §7 scope note (gate validates instrument, must NOT pre-assert H-vs-c sign → the two-sided confirmatory question). Deviation logged in `docs/stage-05-rq2p3-gate-clarification.md` (no number invented, cites the dry-pass; H1/H2/H3 two-sided UNCHANGED — not HARKing, a pre-freeze validation-gate fix).
- CALIBRATION RE-RAN GREEN (all 4 real teeth): item1 frozen branch labels-distinct+H_all_zero+c=1/C ✅; item2 c=1.0 & H=2.54 bits HIGH vs fresh-ref 0.0 ✅; item3 monotonicity ✅; item4 entropy=log2N ✅; all_pass=True. Pool anchor B=50 kept as EXPLORATORY mix diagnostic (ρ=+0.838), not a regression target. Tests: tests/test_sor_rq2p3_pool.py 9 passed. `confirm.py`/`stats.py`/`confirm_load_rq2.py` UNCHANGED.
- FREEZE STAYS HUMAN GATE: §10 empty; NO confirmatory RQ2-P3 cell until Andre records SHA-256 + signs off. Honest disclosure logged for the paper: dry pass previews mix (ρ 0→+0.838) so the battery quantifies a dose-response already visible at calibration; two-sided pre-commitment stands. Lead prereg SHA f22331a72e… INTACT; worktree-only.
- 2026-07-21 RQ3 EXECUTOR-WIRING STONE built + SYNTHETIC-tested (authorized severable follow-on; RQ3 already frozen in its own prereg). battery.enumerate_rq3_cells()/rq3_schedule() = selector∈{static(control),random,agent} at 1house/bridge-off under pinned churn kp=30/steps=20, kept SEPARATE (frozen 6-cell lead lattice byte-identical). executor.run_rq3_cell_run collects OFFLINE selector DVs (throughput-retention, drops/rebuilds, rebuild-interval gaps); added-latency stays live-only (offline path → None, never fabricated); run_rq3_battery(live=False) HARD-RAISES. analysis/rq3_calibration.py = DRY/offline §3-4 gate.
- CHURN-BITES + CLASSIFIER GATES GREEN with real teeth (HARD HOLD satisfied): item1 churn bites — 1589 drops/1576 rebuilds, every cell fraction-with-drops=1.0; item2 rebuild-classifier AUC churned(kp30)-vs-baseline(kp5)=0.926≥0.90 SEPARABLE, baseline-vs-baseline null=0.518 blind; item3 agent cache-replay reproducible; item4 entropy=log2N. all_pass=True.
- HARNESS FIX (not detector-tuning, logged): initial pooled-RAW-gap classifier landed AUC 0.779 (<0.90) — surfaced as candidate STOP, then diagnosed as a GROUPING-UNIT bug (pooling integer gaps floods AUC with ties). Switched calibration to PER-RUN mean-gap (the confirmatory grouping unit, cf. RQ2-P3) → 0.926 with a clean 0.518 null; frozen instrument (rebuild_interval_gaps, rebuild_classifier_auc) UNTOUCHED; rebuild-count rejected (teeth 1.0 but broken null 0.64). No fit to confirmatory data.
- HARD HOLD REMAINS: NO RQ3 confirmatory battery run (run_rq3_battery live=True is operator+grid-gated; added-latency needs isolated-docker). Tests: tests/test_sor_rq3_wiring.py 9 passed; full SOR suite 194 passed (no regression). Lead prereg SHA f22331a72e… INTACT; RQ2-P3 §10 still empty; containment intact (synthetic/offline, $0 local); worktree-only.
- 2026-07-21 COMPANION METHODS drafted BLIND + committed (docs/stage-07-companion-methods.md), mirroring lead-paper SS4 discipline: two standalone methods sections — (A) RQ2-P3 mechanism (marked FREEZE-PENDING, §10 unsigned) + (B) RQ3 companion (frozen prereg §3/§4) — plus Intro/Related-Work deltas (unique-bridge/mix motivation; churn + rebuild-fingerprint motivation), reusing only grounded lead citations (+Barton2025 from the frozen prereg RQ3 DV).
- ALL Results/Discussion HELD-BLIND; the ONLY numbers written are already-produced CALIBRATION values, each labelled calibration NOT result (RQ2-P3 dry preview ρ 0→+0.838 / B=1 high-H; RQ3 gates churn-bites + classifier AUC≈0.93 sep / ≈0.52 null). Both confirmatory tracks stay behind their human gates: RQ2-P3 awaits §10 freeze SHA + sign-off; RQ3 awaits operator-GO + live isolated grid (added-latency is live-only).
- PAPER STRUCTURE LEFT OPEN (operator editorial call — second paper vs folded sections vs mechanism note; not pre-committed). No confirmatory run, no fabricated number, no HARKing; frozen lead prereg f22331a72e… UNTOUCHED; stray docs/.stage-07-paper-draft.md.swp deleted (not committed); containment synthetic/offline, $0; worktree-only feat/sor-consent-relay.
- 2026-07-21 COMPANION-METHODS QA (bounded read-clean) DONE: blinding OK (every number is a design param, frozen gate threshold, or labelled CALIBRATION value — zero HELD-track confirmatory results); citations OK (10 keys all grounded — 9 in lead list, Barton2025 in frozen prereg §3); FREEZE-PENDING + open-structure markers intact. One PROSE fix only (no number changed): attributed a stray `raw p ≈ 0` to the lead paper's already-published RQ1-P1/RQ2-P1 so it can't be misread as a companion figure.
- HOLDING — awaiting operator freeze/GO. Both build tracks complete; both confirmatory tracks blocked on HUMAN gates: RQ2-P3 battery → §10 freeze SHA-256; RQ3 battery + live added-latency → operator-GO + live isolated-docker grid. Standing down: no new stones, no speculative results, no confirmatory work until the operator delivers freeze/GO.
- 2026-07-21 OVERSEER COMMAND (operator-authorized: Andre delegated per-gate command authority 2026-07-21, "make a command decision for each and proceed"). THREE command decisions recorded: **D1** — RQ2-P3 prereg → FREEZE NOW + run confirmatory battery. **D2** — RQ3 companion → GO on live confirmatory battery, grid permitting. **D3** — paper structure → ONE COMBINED companion paper (RQ2-P3 mechanism-correction is the LEAD section — the frozen-detector method caught the lead RQ2-P1 "shrink" as a unique-bridge artifact; RQ3 churn-resilience is the second half; Holm-7 over the full family is authoritative, supersedes the lead's partial embedding). NOT split into two papers.
- STEP 1 DONE — RQ2-P3 prereg FROZEN. §10 filled (FROZEN 2026-07-21; APPROVED BY Andre delegated, executed by overseer; POOL/SKEW LOCKED B∈{2,4,8}, alpha∈{0,1.0,2.0}); no hypothesis/param changed (design LOCKED, §7 re-word already at 7ab3466 — froze AS-IS). SHA convention mirrors the lead (full-file sha256sum in a sidecar, not embedded inline → no self-referential fixpoint). **RQ2-P3 PREREG SHA-256: `8db4e8a7ac60f8b2861f2387249db68a3fd44822f6b3d9c7c6990ff65f261a3b`** (sidecar `docs/rq2p3-mechanism-prereg.sha256`). Re-verified LEAD prereg SHA `f22331a72e0d0ccf38b787e63acabbe9d666456ec76076787a6d545c3193425b` STILL intact (recomputed — has not moved). NEXT: STEP 2 (run RQ2-P3 confirmatory battery, offline+deterministic).
- STEP 2 DONE — RQ2-P3′ CONFIRMATORY battery RAN, OFFLINE + DETERMINISTIC (`analysis/rq2p3_confirm.py`, new harness; frozen `stats.py`/`confirm.py`/`confirm_load_rq2.py`/`assembler.py` UNCHANGED). No live docker/traffic/grid, $0 — RQ2 entropy analytic + pool bridge assignment deterministic from seed (same offline path confirm_load_rq2 uses for lead RQ2). ALL 9 §4 cells (B∈{2,4,8}×α∈{0,1,2}, B=50 anchor excluded) × R=30 × C=50 = 13,500 bridged circuits. Seeds per frozen §6: run=derive_seed(S0=20260719‖cell_id‖run_index), per-circuit=executor._circuit_seed (byte-identical to the live executor's real rule). 10,000 BCa resamples, α=0.05.
- **RESULT — RESOLVED MIX (§8 H1∧H2 agree +, both exclude 0).** H1 pooled Spearman ρ(c_i,H_i), RUN-LEVEL cluster bootstrap = **+0.6244**, 95% BCa CI **[+0.5941, +0.6545]** → mix. H2 OLS dose-response slope (per-run mean-H on per-run mean top-3 conc, 270 clustered pts) = **+0.7052**, 95% BCa CI **[+0.6195, +0.7903]** → mix. H3 joint **RESOLVED = mix**. Holm over own family {H1-pooled, H2-slope} (size 2): both reject (p_adj=0). Effect+CI reported, never bare p.
- HONEST DISCLOSURE (as commanded): the §7 dry pass already PREVIEWED this mix (ρ 0→+0.838); the battery QUANTIFIES an effect already visible at calibration; two-sided pre-commitment stood. The +ρ MIX plainly **QUALIFIES/CORRECTS the lead RQ2-P1 "shrink" headline as a unique-bridge artifact** — concentration RAISES anonymity (shared bridge = mix), opposite of the naive funnel. That correction IS the finding. Lead RQ2-P1 NOT re-litigated; pool ΔH would be EXPLORATORY (prereg §1). Both prereg SHAs intact.
- SEALED IMMUTABLY: `output/sor-rq2p3-confirmatory/rq2p3-confirmatory-results.json` (SHA-256 `5fdcb379d8a2…`) + `SHA256SUMS`; `/output/` gitignored → anchors force-added into the STEP-2 stone. Byte-identical on re-run (determinism verified). Tests: `tests/test_sor_rq2p3_confirm.py` 7 passed; full SOR suite 201 passed (no regression, frozen instruments untouched). NEXT: STEP 3 (RQ3 confirmatory — re-probe grid, launch live if up).
- STEP 3 — RQ3 CONFIRMATORY battery LAUNCHED LIVE (D2 GO, grid UP). Grid re-probed via `grid.write_device_map` (real SSH+docker subprocess probes): reachable=3, isolated_engine_host_count=1 (laptop docker up), devices_down=[] (FULL), honourable=true; `sor-hop:latest` image present (16.8MB). Green preflight: both RQ3 calibration gates already green + a 1×1×2 LIVE rehearsal DELIVERED (real docker circuit, measured added-latency ~9.8s/circuit). New triple-locked launcher `cmd_chat/sor/rq3_confirmatory_run.py` (RQ3 analogue of confirmatory_run.py): lock1 operator token SOR_CONFIRMATORY_GO=1, lock2 LEAD prereg SHA f22331a72e… verified (RQ3 is in the frozen lead family-of-7), lock3 assert_isolated(docker != local). All three armed ("[RQ3 GO] all locks armed").
- RUNNING (do NOT trim): `executor.run_rq3_battery(live=True)` collecting the full frozen schedule — selector∈{static,random,agent} × pinned churn kp30/steps20, R=30 × C=50 = 4,500 real isolated-docker circuits (~12h est. at ~9.8s/circuit). Launch dir `output/sor-rq3-confirmatory/20260722T040640Z/confirmatory-data/` (gitignored; force-add anchors on completion). Verified genuinely progressing: python PID 51087 alive + live 4-container circuit (client+3 hops) up on docker. **Completion-detection: `rq3-battery-results.json` written once at end; progress = count of `rq3-*/rq3-run.json` sidecars → 90 (3 cells × 30 runs).** Containment intact (isolated-docker only, self-traffic, $0 — local heuristic/random arms; no frontier spend). Both prereg SHAs intact; worktree-only. Analysis (RQ3-P1-perf/latency, RQ3-P2, Holm-7) runs AFTER completion on the sealed record.
- 2026-07-21 COMPANION PAPER — RQ2-P3 HALF FILLED POST-SEAL (D3 combined paper). `docs/stage-07-companion-methods.md`: §3 un-marked FREEZE-PENDING → FROZEN 2026-07-21 (SHA 8db4e8a7…); §5 Results + §6 Discussion for RQ2-P3 filled FROM THE SEALED RECORD ONLY (H1 ρ=+0.6244 CI[+0.5941,+0.6545]; H2 β=+0.7052 CI[+0.6195,+0.7903] n=270; H3 RESOLVED=MIX; Holm own {H1,H2} both reject — effect+CI, never bare p). Finding stated plainly: shared-pool concentration RAISES anonymity (mix), REFUTES naive funnel; framed as honest QUALIFICATION/CORRECTION of lead RQ2-P1 "shrink" as a unique-bridge (fresh-bridge-per-circuit) artifact — cites `docs/note-unique-bridge-artifact.md` + frozen mechanism prereg SHA 8db4e8a7…. MANDATORY disclosure carried: §7 dry-pass previewed direction (ρ 0→+0.838); confirmatory quantifies effect already visible at calibration; pre-committed hypotheses were two-sided.
- BLIND HOLD (RQ3): RQ3 Results/Discussion AND authoritative Holm-7 LEFT AS HELD-BLIND placeholders — RQ3 battery still running (progress read by sidecar COUNT only = 3/90; NO rq3-run.json contents read). Lead RQ2-P1 NOT re-litigated (companion QUALIFIES; committed lead paper + frozen prereg f22331a72e… untouched). This stone: $0/offline, worktree-only. NEXT: HOLD for RQ3 — no new stones, no peeking at RQ3 data until `rq3-battery-results.json` lands.
- 2026-07-22 RQ3 BATTERY COMPLETE (90/90 runs, live-docker-e2e, exited clean) → UN-BLIND + FROZEN analysis. RAW SEALED: `.../20260722T040640Z/confirmatory-data/SHA256SUMS` (battery-results.json `5b61e461…` + 90 rq3-run.json sidecars). New analyzer `analysis/rq3_confirm.py` (RQ3 analogue of rq2p3_confirm; frozen `stats`/`metrics` UNTOUCHED — run-level multi-arm bootstrap mirrors `two_sample_diff_ci`, 10k BCa, α=0.05). Sealed analysis `.../20260722T040640Z/analysis/rq3-confirmatory-analysis.json` (SHA `e09c66ef…`). Tests `tests/test_sor_rq3_confirm.py` 6 passed; full SOR suite 207 passed (no regression).
- RQ3 RESULT (effect+CI, never bare p): **RQ3-P1-perf FAIL/H0** — retention margin agent−max(static,random) = **−0.6pp**, BCa CI [−1.58pp, +0.39pp]; every selector heals ~all churn drops (~99% retention) so no ≥+10pp agent gain. **RQ3-P1-latency HOLDS budget** — added-latency(agent−min-baseline=random) = **−13.5ms**, CI [−52.1, +34.9]ms, upper ≤100ms (agent not slower). **RQ3-P2 FAIL/not-excluded** — rebuild-classifier AUC(agent vs pooled baseline, per-run mean-gap) = **0.587**, CI [0.458, 0.703], upper 0.703 > 0.60 → fingerprint NOT excluded (underpowered at n=30). **RQ3-P3 = H0** (P1-perf fails ∧ P2 fails). Honest null: the local agent selector neither beats baselines nor is certifiably non-classifiable.
- AUTHORITATIVE HOLM-7 (frozen family size=7; supersedes lead's conservative partial embedding, D3). RQ2-P3 slot carries the mechanism-corrected primary **H1-pooled Spearman p=0** (not the lead's degenerate p=1). **SURVIVORS: RQ1-P1 (r1×7), RQ2-P1 shrink (r2×6), RQ2-P3 mix (r3×5)** all holm_p=0. NON-survivors: RQ1-P2 (r4×4, holm_p=0.365), RQ3-P2 (r5×3, 0.511), RQ3-P1-perf (r6×2, 0.511), RQ3-P1-latency (r7×1, 0.511). Lead RQ1-P1 & RQ2-P1 survive regardless. Both prereg SHAs intact; $0/offline; worktree-only. NEXT: fill RQ3 half of companion paper (stone 2).
- 2026-07-22 COMPANION PAPER — RQ3 HALF FILLED POST-SEAL (stone 2, D3 combined paper). `docs/stage-07-companion-methods.md`: §5 Results + §6 Discussion RQ3 placeholders AND the authoritative-Holm-7 placeholder REPLACED with real numbers FROM THE SEALED RECORD ONLY (perf −0.6pp CI[−1.58,+0.39]pp H0; latency −13.5ms CI[−52.1,+34.9] within budget, min-baseline=random; P2 AUC 0.587 CI[0.458,0.703] fingerprint-not-excluded; P3=H0). Authoritative Holm-7 in-paper: survivors RQ1-P1/RQ2-P1/RQ2-P3, non-survivors RQ1-P2/RQ3-P2/RQ3-P1-perf/RQ3-P1-latency. Abstract + top blinding block un-blinded (both tracks). RQ2-P3 half NOT re-litigated (kept as filled at e0d865d). DISCLOSURE carried: 0.93 RQ3 calibration AUC = regime discrimination (churn kp30 vs kp5), DISTINCT from the 0.587 confirmatory selector-vs-selector fingerprint — no HARKing, gates frozen. $0/offline, worktree-only; both prereg SHAs intact. NEXT: report + HOLD for review.
- 2026-07-22 STAGE-08 COMPANION ADVERSARIAL REVIEW (3-persona red-team of combined companion paper). `docs/stage-08-companion-adversarial-review.md` written. METHODOLOGIST: Holm-7 reproduced independently byte-for-byte (survivors RQ1-P1/RQ2-P1/RQ2-P3; monotone step-down lifts ranks 6-7 to 0.511), supersedes-partial + single-slot RQ2-P3 (family_size=7, mechanism-corrected p=0) both sound, run-level bootstrap + two-sided pre-commit valid. DOMAIN SKEPTIC: mix-qualifies-shrink scoped as correction-not-overwrite; calibration preview (ρ→+0.838 dry pass) disclosed + kept DISTINCT from confirmatory +0.6244; RQ3 double-null unspun (perf=ceiling no-headroom, P2=n=30 power limit not all-clear). AUDITOR: EVERY figure matches sealed records (5fdcb379, e09c66ef, 5b61e461); 0.93-vs-0.587 AUC kept distinct (no HARKing); Ollama temp-0 cross-hw caveat present; both prereg SHAs (f22331a72e, 8db4e8a7) recomputed intact; blinding = each track filled ONCE post-seal (git 4f89a90→e0d865d→1b6449b). ONE prose defect fixed (Holm monotonicity clarified, ZERO numbers changed). PASS. $0/offline, worktree-only. NEXT: report + HOLD.