docs/stage-07-paper-draft.md — Abstract skeleton, Intro (consent-gate novelty
G4 + RQ1 bridge-leak / RQ2 funnelling motivation), Related Work, full Methods
from the frozen prereg §2-§6, Limitations §7, References. Results/Discussion are
HELD-BLIND placeholders (battery still running, zero confirmatory numbers seen);
RQ2 subsections additionally gated on the pending posterior-construction
ratification. Frozen prereg untouched; no RQ2 statistic computed.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Overseer ruled DIRECTION=A: fill the specification gap the frozen prereg
left on RQ2's per-circuit adversary sender-posterior, rather than
silently redefine the DV (B) or relabel a confirmatory test (C).
Proposes: adversary observes a circuit's exit-bridge/house and forms a
uniform posterior over the observation-consistent anonymity set A_i;
per-circuit H_i = Miller-Madow(log2 m_i), with S=2^H [Serjantov2002] and
d=H/log2 N [Diaz2002] as the cited normalizations. Makes RQ2-P1 (two-
sided ΔH) and RQ2-P3 (Spearman) computable OFFLINE from the immutable raw
records (per_circuit_seeds + deterministic assemble()).
Status PROPOSED — operator ratification pending. Pre-specified BLIND
(2026-07-20, battery running, zero RQ2 statistics computed) so this is
honest pre-registration completion, not HARKing. Frozen prereg untouched;
sign not presumed (honest-shrink reported with equal prominence).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
confirm_load.py reconstructs the RQ1 (entry,exit) circuit-pair set from
the REAL per-hop pcaps (bin_pcap_bytes -> score_matrix; diagonal=linked,
off-diagonal=unlinked) so confirm.rq1_p1_leak scores measured data — the
frozen §4 unit. classify_run reads persisted metrics.json;
collect_rq1_p1_pairs selects only bridge=on no-pad runs.
Plumbing unit-tested on SYNTHETIC pcaps only (prereg §2 blinding — no
inspecting intermediate confirmatory results before the battery
completes). RQ1-P2 nopad/pad pairing + all RQ2 held for the operator
ruling (NEEDS-OPERATOR: RQ2 per-circuit posterior underspecified).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Frozen §3/§4/§6 pin RQ2 DV as a per-circuit adversary sender-posterior
entropy (Miller-Madow, bootstrap over circuits; RQ2-P3 needs per-circuit
H). The committed executor measures a per-run realized-frequency entropy
instead — no per-circuit posterior, no per-circuit H. No formula for the
posterior construction exists in the frozen prereg or the instrument.
Flagged rather than invent a posterior model post-freeze (HARKing/
fabrication on a confirmatory DV). Battery left running (raw records
recoverable → RQ2 recomputable offline under any ruling). RQ1 proceeds.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Measures RQ1 bridge-correlation AUC + RQ2 Shannon entropy from REAL
per-hop pcaps of live isolated-docker circuits. run_battery(live=False)
hard-raises and the executor refuses (ExecutorError) any DV it did not
measure — the executor-side twin of the launcher's "never fabricate
cells" guard. Wired into confirmatory_run's triple-locked tokened GO
(executor.run_battery(live=True) behind operator token + verified frozen
prereg SHA + engine!=local + green preflight + full grid).
Containment intact: self-fixture bytes only, isolated engine only, no
external target. Frozen prereg untouched (SHA f22331a72e…).
Verify: test_sor_executor.py 7 + confirmatory_run + full SOR suite = 163
passed; preflight green (grid 3/3, READY); no confirmatory data collected.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Wire the live per-cell condition assembler (cmd_chat/sor/assembler.py): compose
the existing R1/R4/R5/R6 pieces into a condition-encoding CircuitSpec per frozen
§2 cell, so a cell_id maps to a genuinely distinct, ForwarderPlan-gated
(engine != local) isolated circuit rather than the plain 3-hop control:
- RQ1 bridge-on / on+padding insert a live bridge hop (+ R1 PADDING stream);
- RQ2 bridge-/directory-federated genuinely span >= 2 houses
(federation.select_federated_path, split-knowledge).
Plans only: opens no socket, moves no traffic, stands up no engine.
battery.assembler_dry_check validates on FIXTURES (6/6 cells distinct
fingerprints, all isolation-gated, same (cell,seed) reproduces, RQ1 bridge +
padding arms live, RQ2 federation >= 2 houses); write-once, kept out of any
confirmatory data dir. confirmatory_run preflight now runs it; the --operator-go
path no longer refuses cells as "not wired" — triple-lock + green preflight HOLD
on grid completion, then surface the operator's immutable data-run gate. No
confirmatory cell is ever fabricated.
Start-line instrument-validation gate (cmd_chat/sor/gate.py), grid + containment
pin (grid.py), and the guarded launcher (confirmatory_run.py) land alongside.
Holm: hold family_size = 7, report the 4 RQ1/RQ2 tests -> multipliers 7,6,5,4.
This is the pre-registration, not a deviation (prereg §6 [APPROVAL] size-7 family
+ D6 disclosure in the lead paper); docs/stage-05-holm-clarification.md marked
RATIFIED. RQ3-fold and alpha-split declined.
Containment intact; prereg untouched (SHA f22331a72e...); worktree-only. output/
gitignored (runtime artifacts, never source). Full SOR suite 156 passed. No
confirmatory data collected — the live data run remains the human gate.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
leetcrypt