One auditable, deterministic run of the four lead-paper §6 tests on the
frozen raw battery. Calibration gate PASS (linked AUC 1.0000, unlinked
0.5036 on §5 fixtures) → AUCs reportable.
- RQ1-P1 (bridge leak): AUC 0.4660 CI[0.4523,0.4798] = anomaly-below-chance.
NO measurable leak; Holm-sig but in the WRONG direction (not evidence of
linkability).
- RQ2-P1 (federation): ΔH −0.9587 bits CI[−1.056,−0.864] = SHRINK. Holm-sig
HONEST-NEGATIVE — federation reduces the anonymity set (opposite of RQ2's
motivation); reported with equal prominence per §6 two-sided framing.
- RQ1-P2 (padding): ΔAUC +0.0113 CI[−0.0025,+0.0234] padding-ineffective
(raw p 0.091, Holm adj-p 0.456, not rejected).
- RQ2-P3 (funnelling): Spearman ρ=0, zero-variance concentration =
as-instrumented degeneracy flagged in advance; inconclusive.
Holm family=7 report-4 (multipliers 7,6,5,4); only RQ1-P1 + RQ2-P1 survive.
Ran ONLY the pre-registered tests — no re-slicing, no post-hoc subgroups.
Method faithfulness: RQ1-P1/P2 CIs use a bit-faithful fast numpy bootstrap
(frozen O(n²)-per-fold jackknife intractable at n=75000); stage06_run.py
--verify proves both == frozen stats.bootstrap_ci bit-for-bit (point/lo/hi/
method within 1e-12, incl the average-rank tie path). RQ2-P1/P3 stay on the
frozen confirm.* paths (tractable). Frozen prereg SHA INTACT.
Artifacts: docs/stage-06-analysis.md (methods-faithful narrative, Holm table,
CONFIRMATORY/EXPLORATORY labels, nulls reported honestly) + force-added
output/…/analysis/stage06-results.json (regenerable via stage06_run).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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