Encodes the four lead-paper confirmatory tests exactly per the frozen prereg §6,
calibrated on synthetic ground truth only (never re-fit to cell data):
- RQ1-P1 leak: correlation AUC + BCa CI; gate = CI excludes 0.5 (D2); 0.60 CI
lower bound = separate materiality label (material / weak-but-real), not the gate.
- RQ1-P2 padding: paired ΔAUC = AUC(no-pad) − AUC(pad) over circuits; effective
iff CI > 0.
- RQ2-P1 anonymity set: ΔH = H(federated) − H(single, matched N) with Miller-Madow
per-circuit entropy; two-sided grow / honest-shrink / inconclusive by CI sign.
- RQ2-P3 mechanism: Spearman ρ(top-3 bridge concentration, per-circuit H) + CI.
apply_holm corrects the reported RQ1/RQ2 subset against the full frozen family of
7 (family_size default 7) — never re-optimised to the 4 reported. Bootstrap
p-values order the Holm step-down only; every decision is a CI gate, never a bare p.
stats.py: bootstrap CIs can now return their resample distribution so the Holm
ordering p-value comes from the same resamples as the CI.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
leetcrypt