hack-house

Author SHA1 Message Date

Author	SHA1	Message	Date
leetcrypt	33b82b39ca	SS3: frozen §6 confirmatory pass on real 180/180 — honest null/negative One auditable, deterministic run of the four lead-paper §6 tests on the frozen raw battery. Calibration gate PASS (linked AUC 1.0000, unlinked 0.5036 on §5 fixtures) → AUCs reportable. - RQ1-P1 (bridge leak): AUC 0.4660 CI[0.4523,0.4798] = anomaly-below-chance. NO measurable leak; Holm-sig but in the WRONG direction (not evidence of linkability). - RQ2-P1 (federation): ΔH −0.9587 bits CI[−1.056,−0.864] = SHRINK. Holm-sig HONEST-NEGATIVE — federation reduces the anonymity set (opposite of RQ2's motivation); reported with equal prominence per §6 two-sided framing. - RQ1-P2 (padding): ΔAUC +0.0113 CI[−0.0025,+0.0234] padding-ineffective (raw p 0.091, Holm adj-p 0.456, not rejected). - RQ2-P3 (funnelling): Spearman ρ=0, zero-variance concentration = as-instrumented degeneracy flagged in advance; inconclusive. Holm family=7 report-4 (multipliers 7,6,5,4); only RQ1-P1 + RQ2-P1 survive. Ran ONLY the pre-registered tests — no re-slicing, no post-hoc subgroups. Method faithfulness: RQ1-P1/P2 CIs use a bit-faithful fast numpy bootstrap (frozen O(n²)-per-fold jackknife intractable at n=75000); stage06_run.py --verify proves both == frozen stats.bootstrap_ci bit-for-bit (point/lo/hi/ method within 1e-12, incl the average-rank tie path). RQ2-P1/P3 stay on the frozen confirm.* paths (tractable). Frozen prereg SHA INTACT. Artifacts: docs/stage-06-analysis.md (methods-faithful narrative, Holm table, CONFIRMATORY/EXPLORATORY labels, nulls reported honestly) + force-added output/…/analysis/stage06-results.json (regenerable via stage06_run). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>	2026-07-21 00:55:44 -07:00
leetcrypt	47b2937789	SS2: raw-data freeze — confirmatory battery COMPLETE 180/180, checksummed Battery output/sor-confirmatory/20260720T060132Z/confirmatory-data finished: 180 cell dirs, each metrics.json + manifest.json + non-empty circuits/ with per-hop pcaps. Integrity PASS: 0 missing pcaps (27000 pcap + 9000 events.jsonl); seed provenance verified 180/180 (seed == SHA256(S0=20260719 \|\| cell_id \|\| run_index)); R=30 held exactly across all 6 frozen design cells (RQ1{off,on, on+padding}, RQ2{1house-N,bridge-federated,directory-federated}). No aggregate battery-results.json (expected, NOT fabricated — 180-cell count is the frozen completion proxy). Immutability anchor: SHA256SUMS.txt over 36361 raw artifacts (sorted rel paths); provenance.json (S0 + seed formula, executor SHA `ce68d41`, engine=docker image_digest=null@runtime, timestamps, completion proxy); INTEGRITY-REPORT.md. Anchors force-added (/output/ gitignored → raw data stays out of git). Raw metrics.json IMMUTABLE — not recomputed or edited. SS2 touched structure/checksum/provenance ONLY — no RQ1/RQ2 inferential statistic (AUC/H/CI) computed or inspected. Next: SS3 frozen-§6 pass. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>	2026-07-20 22:35:15 -07:00

leetcrypt

33b82b39ca

SS3: frozen §6 confirmatory pass on real 180/180 — honest null/negative

One auditable, deterministic run of the four lead-paper §6 tests on the
frozen raw battery. Calibration gate PASS (linked AUC 1.0000, unlinked
0.5036 on §5 fixtures) → AUCs reportable.

- RQ1-P1 (bridge leak): AUC 0.4660 CI[0.4523,0.4798] = anomaly-below-chance.
  NO measurable leak; Holm-sig but in the WRONG direction (not evidence of
  linkability).
- RQ2-P1 (federation): ΔH −0.9587 bits CI[−1.056,−0.864] = SHRINK. Holm-sig
  HONEST-NEGATIVE — federation reduces the anonymity set (opposite of RQ2's
  motivation); reported with equal prominence per §6 two-sided framing.
- RQ1-P2 (padding): ΔAUC +0.0113 CI[−0.0025,+0.0234] padding-ineffective
  (raw p 0.091, Holm adj-p 0.456, not rejected).
- RQ2-P3 (funnelling): Spearman ρ=0, zero-variance concentration =
  as-instrumented degeneracy flagged in advance; inconclusive.

Holm family=7 report-4 (multipliers 7,6,5,4); only RQ1-P1 + RQ2-P1 survive.
Ran ONLY the pre-registered tests — no re-slicing, no post-hoc subgroups.

Method faithfulness: RQ1-P1/P2 CIs use a bit-faithful fast numpy bootstrap
(frozen O(n²)-per-fold jackknife intractable at n=75000); stage06_run.py
--verify proves both == frozen stats.bootstrap_ci bit-for-bit (point/lo/hi/
method within 1e-12, incl the average-rank tie path). RQ2-P1/P3 stay on the
frozen confirm.* paths (tractable). Frozen prereg SHA INTACT.

Artifacts: docs/stage-06-analysis.md (methods-faithful narrative, Holm table,
CONFIRMATORY/EXPLORATORY labels, nulls reported honestly) + force-added
output/…/analysis/stage06-results.json (regenerable via stage06_run).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

2026-07-21 00:55:44 -07:00

leetcrypt

47b2937789

SS2: raw-data freeze — confirmatory battery COMPLETE 180/180, checksummed

Battery output/sor-confirmatory/20260720T060132Z/confirmatory-data finished:
180 cell dirs, each metrics.json + manifest.json + non-empty circuits/ with
per-hop pcaps. Integrity PASS: 0 missing pcaps (27000 pcap + 9000 events.jsonl);
seed provenance verified 180/180 (seed == SHA256(S0=20260719 || cell_id ||
run_index)); R=30 held exactly across all 6 frozen design cells (RQ1{off,on,
on+padding}, RQ2{1house-N,bridge-federated,directory-federated}). No aggregate
battery-results.json (expected, NOT fabricated — 180-cell count is the frozen
completion proxy).

Immutability anchor: SHA256SUMS.txt over 36361 raw artifacts (sorted rel paths);
provenance.json (S0 + seed formula, executor SHA ce68d41, engine=docker
image_digest=null@runtime, timestamps, completion proxy); INTEGRITY-REPORT.md.
Anchors force-added (/output/ gitignored → raw data stays out of git). Raw
metrics.json IMMUTABLE — not recomputed or edited.

SS2 touched structure/checksum/provenance ONLY — no RQ1/RQ2 inferential
statistic (AUC/H/CI) computed or inspected. Next: SS3 frozen-§6 pass.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

2026-07-20 22:35:15 -07:00

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