Flip docs/stage-05-rq2-posterior-clarification.md PROPOSED->RATIFIED (operator
Andre, 2026-07-20, ratified while BLIND to RQ2 data — honest prereg-completion of
a gap the freeze left, not HARKing). Substance of the construction unchanged.
Add cmd_chat/sor/analysis/confirm_load_rq2.py: reconstructs each circuit's spec
OFFLINE from the persisted per_circuit_seeds via deterministic assemble(), derives
the observation-consistent anonymity set A_i (uniform / max-entropy -> [1]*m_i),
per-circuit Miller-Madow H_i, and the willing-bridge concentration series — the
exact inputs confirm.rq2_p1_delta_h (ΔH, two-sided) and rq2_p3_funnel (Spearman ρ)
consume. Grounded only in the ratified rule ([Serjantov2002]/[Diaz2002]).
BLINDING preserved (prereg §2): ratification unblocks CODE, not results. The
collect_* real-data entrypoints are BLIND-GATED and NOT run; the reconstruction is
unit-tested on SYNTHETIC specs/seeds only (test_sor_confirm_load_rq2.py, 6 passed;
full SOR suite 172 passed). Frozen prereg untouched; no RQ2 statistic computed.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Overseer ruled DIRECTION=A: fill the specification gap the frozen prereg
left on RQ2's per-circuit adversary sender-posterior, rather than
silently redefine the DV (B) or relabel a confirmatory test (C).
Proposes: adversary observes a circuit's exit-bridge/house and forms a
uniform posterior over the observation-consistent anonymity set A_i;
per-circuit H_i = Miller-Madow(log2 m_i), with S=2^H [Serjantov2002] and
d=H/log2 N [Diaz2002] as the cited normalizations. Makes RQ2-P1 (two-
sided ΔH) and RQ2-P3 (Spearman) computable OFFLINE from the immutable raw
records (per_circuit_seeds + deterministic assemble()).
Status PROPOSED — operator ratification pending. Pre-specified BLIND
(2026-07-20, battery running, zero RQ2 statistics computed) so this is
honest pre-registration completion, not HARKing. Frozen prereg untouched;
sign not presumed (honest-shrink reported with equal prominence).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
leetcrypt