Build the funnelling-mechanism instrument for the RQ2-P3 follow-up: a new
`bridge-federated-pool` topology drawing each circuit's bridge from a finite
willing-bridge pool (size B) under Zipf willingness skew (alpha), so bridge
concentration genuinely varies as a manipulated IV. Defensive measurement only:
synthetic seeds, no engine, no traffic, no confirmatory record read.
- assembler.py: add `bridge-federated-pool` branch + zipf_weights/weighted_draw
helpers; existing lead `bridge-federated` branch left untouched and
bit-reproducible (fresh bridge per seed).
- battery.py: enumerate_rq2p3_cells() = B{2,4,8} x alpha{0,1,2} + anchor B=50,
alpha=0 (separate fn; frozen 6-cell lead lattice unmutated).
- analysis/rq2p3_calibration.py: DRY synthetic-only §7 calibration gate; no
confirmatory data read. confirm_load_rq2.py/confirm.py/stats.py unchanged.
- tests/test_sor_rq2p3_pool.py: 9 synthetic tests (helpers + pool reuse/variance
+ lead branch reproducibility).
Calibration gate RAN: items 3 (monotonicity) & 4 (entropy) PASS; items 1 & 2 do
NOT match their naive-funnel wording because the ratified posterior yields a MIX
(rho>0 across the whole sweep incl anchor rho=+0.838; B=1 -> H=2.54 bits HIGH) --
the note-unique-bridge-artifact.md prediction, surfaced early. HARD HOLD: no
confirmatory battery, no prereg freeze; NEEDS-OPERATOR banner raised for the §7
item-1/2 re-word decision. Lead prereg SHA f22331a72e... untouched; worktree-only.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
One auditable, deterministic run of the four lead-paper §6 tests on the
frozen raw battery. Calibration gate PASS (linked AUC 1.0000, unlinked
0.5036 on §5 fixtures) → AUCs reportable.
- RQ1-P1 (bridge leak): AUC 0.4660 CI[0.4523,0.4798] = anomaly-below-chance.
NO measurable leak; Holm-sig but in the WRONG direction (not evidence of
linkability).
- RQ2-P1 (federation): ΔH −0.9587 bits CI[−1.056,−0.864] = SHRINK. Holm-sig
HONEST-NEGATIVE — federation reduces the anonymity set (opposite of RQ2's
motivation); reported with equal prominence per §6 two-sided framing.
- RQ1-P2 (padding): ΔAUC +0.0113 CI[−0.0025,+0.0234] padding-ineffective
(raw p 0.091, Holm adj-p 0.456, not rejected).
- RQ2-P3 (funnelling): Spearman ρ=0, zero-variance concentration =
as-instrumented degeneracy flagged in advance; inconclusive.
Holm family=7 report-4 (multipliers 7,6,5,4); only RQ1-P1 + RQ2-P1 survive.
Ran ONLY the pre-registered tests — no re-slicing, no post-hoc subgroups.
Method faithfulness: RQ1-P1/P2 CIs use a bit-faithful fast numpy bootstrap
(frozen O(n²)-per-fold jackknife intractable at n=75000); stage06_run.py
--verify proves both == frozen stats.bootstrap_ci bit-for-bit (point/lo/hi/
method within 1e-12, incl the average-rank tie path). RQ2-P1/P3 stay on the
frozen confirm.* paths (tractable). Frozen prereg SHA INTACT.
Artifacts: docs/stage-06-analysis.md (methods-faithful narrative, Holm table,
CONFIRMATORY/EXPLORATORY labels, nulls reported honestly) + force-added
output/…/analysis/stage06-results.json (regenerable via stage06_run).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Pairing ruling (docs/stage-05-rq1p2-pairing-clarification.md, RATIFIED-by-
derivation, made while BLIND): the frozen §6 L197-198 "paired" bootstrap pairs
the bridge-on (no-pad) and bridge-on+padding arms BY RUN INDEX — the only
balanced pairing the R=30 (§4 L111) interleaved (§3 L97) design supports; the
§4 L108 RQ1 unit is AUC over the (entry,exit) pair set, so the pairable unit is
the run, not the circuit. Prereg SHA untouched (f22331a72e…).
confirm_load.collect_rq1_p2_paired feeds one confirm.PairedCircuit per shared
run_index into the FROZEN confirm.rq1_p2_padding (§6 arm-level ΔAUC preserved);
per_run_delta_aucs exposes the auditable per-run ΔAUC_i; missing-arm indices are
unpaired (frozen R not redefined). Unit-tested on SYNTHETIC pcaps only
(prereg §2 blinding — unblocks CODE not RESULTS); full SOR suite 176 passed.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Flip docs/stage-05-rq2-posterior-clarification.md PROPOSED->RATIFIED (operator
Andre, 2026-07-20, ratified while BLIND to RQ2 data — honest prereg-completion of
a gap the freeze left, not HARKing). Substance of the construction unchanged.
Add cmd_chat/sor/analysis/confirm_load_rq2.py: reconstructs each circuit's spec
OFFLINE from the persisted per_circuit_seeds via deterministic assemble(), derives
the observation-consistent anonymity set A_i (uniform / max-entropy -> [1]*m_i),
per-circuit Miller-Madow H_i, and the willing-bridge concentration series — the
exact inputs confirm.rq2_p1_delta_h (ΔH, two-sided) and rq2_p3_funnel (Spearman ρ)
consume. Grounded only in the ratified rule ([Serjantov2002]/[Diaz2002]).
BLINDING preserved (prereg §2): ratification unblocks CODE, not results. The
collect_* real-data entrypoints are BLIND-GATED and NOT run; the reconstruction is
unit-tested on SYNTHETIC specs/seeds only (test_sor_confirm_load_rq2.py, 6 passed;
full SOR suite 172 passed). Frozen prereg untouched; no RQ2 statistic computed.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
confirm_load.py reconstructs the RQ1 (entry,exit) circuit-pair set from
the REAL per-hop pcaps (bin_pcap_bytes -> score_matrix; diagonal=linked,
off-diagonal=unlinked) so confirm.rq1_p1_leak scores measured data — the
frozen §4 unit. classify_run reads persisted metrics.json;
collect_rq1_p1_pairs selects only bridge=on no-pad runs.
Plumbing unit-tested on SYNTHETIC pcaps only (prereg §2 blinding — no
inspecting intermediate confirmatory results before the battery
completes). RQ1-P2 nopad/pad pairing + all RQ2 held for the operator
ruling (NEEDS-OPERATOR: RQ2 per-circuit posterior underspecified).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Measures RQ1 bridge-correlation AUC + RQ2 Shannon entropy from REAL
per-hop pcaps of live isolated-docker circuits. run_battery(live=False)
hard-raises and the executor refuses (ExecutorError) any DV it did not
measure — the executor-side twin of the launcher's "never fabricate
cells" guard. Wired into confirmatory_run's triple-locked tokened GO
(executor.run_battery(live=True) behind operator token + verified frozen
prereg SHA + engine!=local + green preflight + full grid).
Containment intact: self-fixture bytes only, isolated engine only, no
external target. Frozen prereg untouched (SHA f22331a72e…).
Verify: test_sor_executor.py 7 + confirmatory_run + full SOR suite = 163
passed; preflight green (grid 3/3, READY); no confirmatory data collected.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Wire the live per-cell condition assembler (cmd_chat/sor/assembler.py): compose
the existing R1/R4/R5/R6 pieces into a condition-encoding CircuitSpec per frozen
§2 cell, so a cell_id maps to a genuinely distinct, ForwarderPlan-gated
(engine != local) isolated circuit rather than the plain 3-hop control:
- RQ1 bridge-on / on+padding insert a live bridge hop (+ R1 PADDING stream);
- RQ2 bridge-/directory-federated genuinely span >= 2 houses
(federation.select_federated_path, split-knowledge).
Plans only: opens no socket, moves no traffic, stands up no engine.
battery.assembler_dry_check validates on FIXTURES (6/6 cells distinct
fingerprints, all isolation-gated, same (cell,seed) reproduces, RQ1 bridge +
padding arms live, RQ2 federation >= 2 houses); write-once, kept out of any
confirmatory data dir. confirmatory_run preflight now runs it; the --operator-go
path no longer refuses cells as "not wired" — triple-lock + green preflight HOLD
on grid completion, then surface the operator's immutable data-run gate. No
confirmatory cell is ever fabricated.
Start-line instrument-validation gate (cmd_chat/sor/gate.py), grid + containment
pin (grid.py), and the guarded launcher (confirmatory_run.py) land alongside.
Holm: hold family_size = 7, report the 4 RQ1/RQ2 tests -> multipliers 7,6,5,4.
This is the pre-registration, not a deviation (prereg §6 [APPROVAL] size-7 family
+ D6 disclosure in the lead paper); docs/stage-05-holm-clarification.md marked
RATIFIED. RQ3-fold and alpha-split declined.
Containment intact; prereg untouched (SHA f22331a72e...); worktree-only. output/
gitignored (runtime artifacts, never source). Full SOR suite 156 passed. No
confirmatory data collected — the live data run remains the human gate.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Enumerates the frozen §2 confirmatory cells (3 RQ1 bridge levels + 3 RQ2 topology
levels at their controls; bridge-off+padding recorded as a declared N/A, not run),
derives each run's seed by the frozen §4 rule (SHA256('<S0>|<cell_id>|<run_index>')
big-endian first 8 bytes -> u64, S0=20260719), and lays out the §2 schedule with
run order randomized within each cell and each RQ's control interleaved before and
after its treatments.
write_cell_plan emits the auditable cell x run plan artifact (R=30, C=50 -> 180
runs / 9000 circuits, seed rule, matched-N rule, full schedule). dry_pass exercises
the R2/R3 provenance pipeline on FIXTURES only (deterministic replay_and_seal, no
engine, no traffic) to prove schema-valid + checksummed provenance and that a seed
reproduces its circuit-build sequence. Collects no confirmatory data — that remains
the human gate.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Encodes the four lead-paper confirmatory tests exactly per the frozen prereg §6,
calibrated on synthetic ground truth only (never re-fit to cell data):
- RQ1-P1 leak: correlation AUC + BCa CI; gate = CI excludes 0.5 (D2); 0.60 CI
lower bound = separate materiality label (material / weak-but-real), not the gate.
- RQ1-P2 padding: paired ΔAUC = AUC(no-pad) − AUC(pad) over circuits; effective
iff CI > 0.
- RQ2-P1 anonymity set: ΔH = H(federated) − H(single, matched N) with Miller-Madow
per-circuit entropy; two-sided grow / honest-shrink / inconclusive by CI sign.
- RQ2-P3 mechanism: Spearman ρ(top-3 bridge concentration, per-circuit H) + CI.
apply_holm corrects the reported RQ1/RQ2 subset against the full frozen family of
7 (family_size default 7) — never re-optimised to the 4 reported. Bootstrap
p-values order the Holm step-down only; every decision is a CI gate, never a bare p.
stats.py: bootstrap CIs can now return their resample distribution so the Holm
ordering p-value comes from the same resamples as the CI.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Turnkey implementation of the frozen prereg §6 analysis plan, written before any
confirmatory data exists (analysis-precedes-data, rigor-standards §Statistics).
Pure stdlib, no I/O, no engine, no traffic — calibrated on synthetic ground truth only:
- bootstrap_ci / two_sample_diff_ci: BCa 95% CIs (10k resamples default) with a
percentile fallback when bias/acceleration terms are degenerate; seeded and
reproducible (CIResult carries method+seed for the §6 three-seed spot-check).
- miller_madow_entropy_bits: plug-in Shannon entropy + Miller-Madow bias
correction (§3 estimator).
- spearman: rank correlation for RQ2-P3.
- holm_bonferroni: step-down multiplicity correction with explicit family_size so
a lead paper reporting a subset of the frozen 7-test family still corrects
against the full family (never re-optimised to the reported subset).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Adds the RQ3 agent-selector backend as a reproducible, offline measurement
decision — not relay/data-plane traffic. Containment is untouched: the model
query is a local call to localhost:11434.
- selector.py: SelectorPolicy ABC seam; static/random/agent(heuristic) built-ins;
make_policy() resolves (strategy, agent_backend); run_selection writes a
write-once selector.json provenance sidecar.
- agent_selector.py: OllamaAgentPolicy — reproducible confirmatory arm
(temp=0 + per-run seed, decisions cached keyed by (seed, state-hash),
deterministic heuristic fallback on any model/parse failure, model weights
digest pinned for the manifest). ClaudeExploratoryPolicy — EXPLORATORY-only
stub: makes no paid call, refuses to serve as a confirmatory backend.
- provenance.py: additive selector_backend field so an agent-selected run pins
the exact model id + weights digest.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
churn.py emits a seed-deterministic kill/spawn schedule (pure data — no real VM
spin/kill; the live fabric half stays gated by the containment law). selector.py
consumes the schedule and rebuilds a circuit whenever a kill drops one of its
hops, across static | random | agent strategies; the paid frontier-model agent
arm (GOAL envelope (c)) is human-gated and NOT wired — the agent strategy here is
a local stability heuristic that spends nothing. analysis/metrics.py aggregates
the four DV families (RQ1 correlation AUC, RQ2 entropy bits, RQ3 throughput
retention + rebuild-classifier AUC) into a schema-valid, write-once metrics.json.
Acceptance check green: under a fixed churn seed the selector rebuilds every
dropped circuit (every_drop_rebuilt, all strategies) and metrics.json is
produced. Python R7 selector suite 11 passed; full SOR suite 92 passed.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
federation.py adds both federation modes as offline-verifiable logic (no socket,
no engine, no external target — this measures a trust model, it provides
anonymity to no one). directory-federation: a signature-gated HOUSE-PEER roster
(PeerRoster/build_peer_frame/parse_peer_frame, Ed25519-signed, forged/unsigned
rejected) merged into a pubkey->house Directory, with select_federated_path
drawing a seed-deterministic circuit that spans >=2 houses and refuses to
collapse to one — so no single house's logs hold every hop identity (RQ2 split
knowledge). bridge-member: BlindBridge holds no room key and relays only opaque
SOR tunnel bytes verbatim (chat/consent/unknown frames refused, plaintext never
read), emitting metadata-only bridge_forward R3 events. Acceptance check green:
roster signature-gated, path spans two houses, bridge is plaintext-blind. Python
federation suite 10 passed.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
run_circuit_fixture stands up an isolated docker N-hop nested-SSH chain, pipes a
seed-deterministic self-generated payload through it, verifies end-to-end
delivery, captures + checksums a per-hop pcap, emits R3 events, and always tears
the circuit down. Containment is load-bearing: assert_isolated refuses
local/unknown engines up front, every hop is built through the ForwarderPlan
guard, only our own fixture bytes move between our own containers, and the runner
is wired for docker only (multipass e2e refused, not faked). Adds the sor-hop
fixture image (alpine + sshd + tcpdump, lab-relay only) and a docker-gated
acceptance test that skips where no daemon/image is present. Instrument-validation
gate item 1 GREEN: live 3-hop delivery verified, 3 distinct hops, pcaps checksum.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Land only the offline-validatable half of R7 (instrument-validation gate items
3 and 4): the detectors the gate calibrates on synthetic fixtures, never on
confirmatory-cell data. Pure stdlib functions over in-memory series — no pcaps,
no engine, no traffic, no VM fabric.
- analysis/detectors.py: shannon_entropy_bits (RQ2 anonymity-set entropy),
pearson/score_matrix/auc/linkage_auc, bridge_correlation_auc (RQ1
linkability scorer), and synthetic_bridge_fixture (seed-deterministic
known-linked / known-unlinked ground truth via the R1 SorRng).
Calibration green: entropy returns exactly log2(N) for N equiprobable senders
(gate item 4); a known-linked control pair scores AUC=1.0 and the unlinked
estimator is unbiased at chance (ensemble mean over 40 seeds = 0.498 ~ 0.5,
gate item 3). Detectors are calibrated on synthetic fixtures only — no fitting.
The traffic-moving R7 pieces (churn.py VM spin/kill, live selector rebuild loop,
metrics.json emission) are HELD for R4/R6 + a live grid and are absent here.
Python SOR suite 66 passed.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Land only the containment-refusal half of R4: the guard every SOR forwarder
must pass before it does anything — assert engine != local, or refuse. It moves
no traffic, opens no socket, spawns no engine, and builds no SSH chain.
- forwarder.py: assert_isolated (raises on local and on any engine off the
manifest allow-list), isolation_prefix (docker/multipass exec argv, no host
path), ForwarderPlan (construction IS the gate — no plan for local/unknown/
no-container). Allow-list imported from provenance so forwarder and manifest
cannot disagree about what counts as isolated.
- There is no code path in this module that returns an exec prefix for the host;
containment is structural, not a runtime flag.
The traffic-moving half of R4 (gate item 1: 3-hop self-traffic e2e delivery +
per-hop pcaps across the grid) is deliberately NOT implemented — HELD for a live
isolated engine + grid. This guard is fully verifiable offline.
Acceptance (gate item 5) green: local/unknown/no-container refused; isolated
engine accepted with the correct isolation prefix. Python forwarder suite 12
passed; full SOR Python suite 49 passed.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Add the in-band, signature-gated consent handshake that governs whether a
node may be recruited into a measured SOR circuit, plus a per-recipient
sealed box so a hop credential decrypts only with the host's X25519 key.
- crypto.rs: seal_to_pubkey/open_sealed (ephemeral X25519 -> HKDF-SHA256 ->
Fernet AEAD), reusing the existing fernet crate (no new symmetric primitive).
- sor/consent.rs: signed ConsentRequest (Ed25519 persona), node_evaluate
(reject unless the signature verifies), CircuitBuilder that recruits a hop
only on an accept it can open; parse_sor_frame with never-panic proptests.
- net.rs: {"_sor":...} control frames are live-only and classified out-of-band
by the SOR layer (parse_sor), never surfaced as chat/app events.
- cmd_chat/sor/consent.py + bridge _sor case: bit-compatible Python mirror;
the agent only observes/classifies consent frames — it never auto-accepts
and stands up no forwarder (forwarding is R4, isolated-engine-only).
Acceptance check (roadmap R5) green both languages: host recruits a hop only
after an explicit accept; a reject leaves no entry; the credential opens only
with the host key (third party cannot); unsigned/forged request -> rejected.
Cross-language KDF parity pinned by a shared known-answer vector.
Rust 75 passed; Python SOR suite 37 passed.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Adds the tamper-evident event stream that makes every DV auditable. Each
measurable moment is appended as one JSON object per line to an append-only
output/sor-runs/<ts>/events.jsonl over the closed vocabulary {consent_request,
consent_accept, consent_reject, circuit_build, hop_add, bridge_forward,
churn_kill, churn_spawn, rebuild_start, rebuild_done}; on close the file is
SHA-256'd and the digest is sealed exactly once into manifest.json (the single
sanctioned None->hash completion of the manifest).
Records carry only metadata (fingerprints, byte counts, latencies, decisions),
never message plaintext, so the zero-knowledge relay property is preserved. The
deterministic replay_fixture_circuit emits a seed-driven event stream with no
engine, socket, or traffic (containment-safe) and is the basis of
instrument-validation gate item 6.
- cmd_chat/sor/events.py: EventLog (append-only, per-record schema),
replay_fixture_circuit, replay_and_seal.
- cmd_chat/sor/provenance.py: seal_manifest (seal-once events SHA + stop ts).
- tests: replay -> schema-valid JSONL whose SHA matches the manifest;
append-only (original prefix byte-identical after further appends);
seed-determinism modulo timestamps; seal-once immutability.
Live emit wiring into the _sor handlers lands with R4/R5.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
write_manifest() freezes at circuit-experiment start everything needed to
reproduce and audit a SOR run and writes an immutable
output/sor-runs/<ts>/manifest.json: the R1 --sor-seed, topology/selector/churn
schedule id, one persona fingerprint per participating node, worktree git SHA,
isolated engine kind + image digest, pip/cargo dependency freeze, and
start/stop timestamps. The events.jsonl SHA-256 field is reserved for R3.
Provenance only: no forwarder, no engine spawned. Defense-in-depth to keep
containment load-bearing, the schema refuses to record a non-isolated
("local") engine at run or node level; the binding assertion still lands with
the R4 forwarder.
- cmd_chat/sor/provenance.py: Node/RunManifest, node_fingerprint (bit-for-bit
mirror of persona.rs::fingerprint_of), git/deps capture, explicit
dependency-free schema validator.
- hh/src/persona.rs: fingerprint_of known-vector parity test.
- tests: R2 acceptance predicate (manifest present + schema-valid, non-empty
seed, >=1 fingerprint/node), immutability, containment rejection of local
engines, and cross-language fingerprint parity.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Adds the single stochasticity source for the SOR measurement instrument so
every later stochastic decision (path selection R4, churn/selector R7, padding
jitter R4) is driven by one --sor-seed and is byte-reproducible run-to-run —
the R1 acceptance check and instrument-validation gate item 2.
- hh/src/sor/mod.rs: SplitMix64 + SHA-256 domain-separated sub-streams +
unbiased Lemire bounded sampling -> deterministic select_path/bringup.
Pure bookkeeping: no forwarder, no socket, no engine. Isolated-engine
containment assertions land with the R4 forwarder.
- hh/src/main.rs: `sor-bringup --sor-seed` emits the deterministic
circuit-build sequence as JSON (observable reproducibility).
- cmd_chat/sor/config.py: bit-for-bit Python mirror so the seed means the
same thing on both sides.
- Tests (Rust proptest+unit, Python pytest): SplitMix64 known-answer vector,
same-seed determinism, seed divergence, bounded/no-panic, and a shared
cross-language parity vector asserted identically in both suites.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
leetcrypt