Replace the HELD-BLIND RQ3 Results/Discussion + authoritative-Holm-7
placeholders in docs/stage-07-companion-methods.md with real numbers read
from the sealed record only (rq3-confirmatory-analysis.json e09c66ef…):
RQ3-P1-perf -0.6pp CI[-1.58,+0.39]pp -> H0 (no +10pp agent margin)
RQ3-P1-latency -13.5ms CI[-52.1,+34.9]ms -> within 100ms budget
RQ3-P2 AUC 0.587 CI[0.458,0.703] -> fingerprint NOT excluded
RQ3-P3 = H0 (perf fails AND P2 fails)
Authoritative Holm-7 (family size 7, supersedes lead partial embedding, D3):
survivors RQ1-P1 / RQ2-P1 / RQ2-P3; non-survivors RQ1-P2 / RQ3-P2 /
RQ3-P1-perf / RQ3-P1-latency. RQ2-P3 slot carries the mechanism-corrected
primary p, not the lead degenerate p=1.
Calibration disclosure carried: the 0.93 RQ3 calibration AUC is regime
discrimination (churn kp30 vs kp5), distinct from the 0.587 confirmatory
selector-vs-selector fingerprint — no HARKing, detectors frozen.
RQ2-P3 half not re-litigated (kept as filled at e0d865d). Nulls reported
openly as results. Frozen lead prereg f22331a72e… and RQ2-P3 prereg
8db4e8a7… both intact. $0/offline, worktree-only.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Post-seal, un-blinded fill of the RQ2-P3 mechanism track in the combined
companion paper (D3), matching the lead paper's post-seal discipline. RQ3
remains fully HELD-BLIND (battery still running; progress read by sidecar
count only).
- §3: FREEZE-PENDING -> FROZEN 2026-07-21 (prereg SHA 8db4e8a7...)
- §5 Results (RQ2-P3): H1 rho=+0.6244 CI[+0.5941,+0.6545]; H2 slope=+0.7052
CI[+0.6195,+0.7903] (n=270, run-level cluster bootstrap); H3 RESOLVED=MIX;
Holm own {H1,H2} both reject. Effect+CI, never bare p.
- §6 Discussion: shared-pool concentration RAISES anonymity (mix), refuting
the naive funnel; honest qualification/correction of the lead RQ2-P1
"shrink" as a unique-bridge (fresh-bridge-per-circuit) artifact, per
note-unique-bridge-artifact.md + frozen mechanism prereg. Mandatory
disclosure: §7 dry-pass previewed direction (rho 0->+0.838); hypotheses
were pre-committed two-sided.
RQ3 Results/Discussion and the authoritative Holm-7 stay HELD-BLIND until
rq3-battery-results.json lands. Lead RQ2-P1 + frozen lead prereg untouched.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Bounded companion-methods QA (blinding / citation-grounding / FREEZE-PENDING all
clean). Prose-only clarification, no number changed: mark the stray raw p ~ 0 as
the lead paper's already-published RQ1-P1/RQ2-P1 result so it cannot be misread as
a held companion figure. HOLDING — awaiting operator freeze (RQ2-P3 §10) / GO
(RQ3 live grid).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Draft the companion METHODS data-independent and blind, mirroring the lead-paper
SS4 discipline: methods drafted, all Results/Discussion HELD-BLIND. No confirmatory
run, no confirmatory number.
- Two standalone methods sections (paper structure left OPEN — operator editorial
call): (A) RQ2-P3 funnelling-mechanism study, header marked FREEZE-PENDING since
its prereg §10 is unsigned — pool instrument, B×alpha manipulated-IV design,
two-sided H1/H2/H3, run-level cluster bootstrap, re-worded §7 gate (cites
stage-05-rq2p3-gate-clarification.md); (B) RQ3 companion from the frozen prereg
§3/§4 — qwen2.5:3b + reproducibility caveat, churn kp=30/steps=20, frozen
RQ3-P1-perf/latency/RQ3-P2 gates, Holm-7-supersedes note.
- Intro/Related-Work deltas (unique-bridge/mix mechanism; churn-resilience +
rebuild-fingerprint motivation), reusing only grounded lead citations plus
Barton2025 from the frozen prereg's RQ3 DV.
- The only numbers written are already-produced CALIBRATION gate values, each
labelled calibration not result (RQ2-P3 dry preview mix; RQ3 churn-bites +
classifier calibration). Results/Discussion are HELD-BLIND placeholders.
HARD HOLDS: RQ2-P3 awaits §10 human freeze; RQ3 awaits operator-GO + live grid
(added-latency is live-only). Frozen lead prereg f22331a72e… untouched; no HARKing;
containment synthetic/offline, $0; worktree-only.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
leetcrypt