SS4: fill lead-paper Results/Discussion from the frozen §6 pass

Populate docs/stage-07-paper-draft.md §5 Results + §6 Discussion ONCE, after
the battery sealed, from the single SS3 inferential pass — the blind-authored
§1–4/7 are unchanged. Abstract + §1 contributions updated to the honest
double-null/negative headline.

- §5.1 calibration gate PASS (known-linked AUC 1.0000, unlinked 0.5036).
- §5.2 RQ1-P1 AUC 0.466 [0.452,0.480] = anomaly-below-chance (NO leak);
  RQ1-P2 ΔAUC +0.011 [−0.002,+0.023] padding-ineffective (moot).
- §5.3 RQ2-P1 ΔH −0.96 bits [−1.06,−0.86] SHRINK, reported with equal
  prominence (not reframed as "helps"); RQ2-P3 ρ=0 degenerate/inconclusive.
- §5.4 Holm table (family=7, report-4); only RQ1-P1 + RQ2-P1 survive @ .05.
- §6 honest interpretation; §7 adds the funnelling-degeneracy limitation;
  §8 marks the RQ2 posterior + RQ1-P2 pairing ratified and notes the
  bit-faithful RQ1 bootstrap.

No spin, no re-slicing, no post-hoc subgroups. Frozen prereg SHA intact.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

OVERSEER-STATUS.md

@@ -60,3 +60,6 @@ RQ2 RATIFIED (operator Andre, 2026-07-20, while blind) — observation-consisten
 - 2026-07-20 SS3 FROZEN-§6 INFERENTIAL PASS DONE + committed (ONE auditable run on real 180/180). Calibration gate PASS (linked AUC 1.0000, unlinked 0.5036 on §5 fixtures) ⇒ AUCs reportable. HONEST-NULL/NEGATIVE result set, reported with no spin: RQ1-P1 AUC 0.4660 CI[0.4523,0.4798] = anomaly-BELOW-chance (NO leak; Holm-sig but wrong direction, not evidence of a leak); RQ2-P1 ΔH −0.9587 bits CI[−1.056,−0.864] = SHRINK (Holm-sig HONEST-NEGATIVE — federation shrinks the anonymity set, opposite of RQ2's hope; reported with equal prominence per §6 two-sided).
 - RQ1-P2 ΔAUC +0.0113 CI[−0.0025,+0.0234] padding-ineffective (raw p 0.091, Holm adj-p 0.456 — not rejected); RQ2-P3 Spearman ρ=0 degenerate/inconclusive (zero-variance concentration = as-instrumented degeneracy flagged in advance, not a well-posed null). Holm family=7 report-4 (multipliers 7,6,5,4); only RQ1-P1 + RQ2-P1 survive @ α=.05.
 - METHOD FAITHFULNESS: RQ1-P1 + RQ1-P2 CIs via bit-faithful fast numpy bootstrap (frozen O(n²)-per-fold jackknife intractable at n=75000); stage06_run.py --verify PROVES both == frozen stats.bootstrap_ci bit-for-bit (point/lo/hi/method within 1e-12, incl tie path). RQ2-P1/P3 left on frozen confirm.* paths (tractable). Ran ONLY pre-registered tests; frozen prereg SHA INTACT. Artifacts: docs/stage-06-analysis.md + output/…/analysis/stage06-results.json (force-added; /output/ gitignored). NEXT=SS4 Results/Discussion.
+- 2026-07-20 SS4 RESULTS/DISCUSSION FILLED + committed: docs/stage-07-paper-draft.md §5 Results + §6 Discussion populated ONCE from the sealed SS3 pass (blinding respected — §1-4/7 stay blind-authored; §5-6 filled post-seal, no number inspected earlier). Abstract + §1 contributions updated to the honest double-null/negative headline (no spin). Zero HELD/BLIND/PROPOSED placeholders remain.
+- Filled faithfully to frozen §6: §5.1 calibration gate PASS (linked 1.0000/unlinked 0.5036); §5.2 RQ1-P1 AUC 0.466 anomaly-below-chance = NO leak, RQ1-P2 ΔAUC +0.011 padding-ineffective (moot, no leak to close); §5.3 RQ2-P1 ΔH −0.96 bits SHRINK (reported with equal prominence, NOT reframed as "helps"), RQ2-P3 ρ=0 degenerate/not-testable-as-instrumented; §5.4 Holm table (only RQ1-P1+RQ2-P1 survive). §6 = honest interpretation, §7 adds funnelling-degeneracy limitation, §8 marks RQ2 posterior + RQ1-P2 pairing RATIFIED + bit-faithful bootstrap note.
+- prereg SHA INTACT (f22331a72e…); worktree-only. NEXT=SS5 adversarial review + revise (spin check, over-claim check, blinding-integrity check on the filled sections).