docs: fill RQ2-P3 half of combined companion paper from sealed record

Post-seal, un-blinded fill of the RQ2-P3 mechanism track in the combined
companion paper (D3), matching the lead paper's post-seal discipline. RQ3
remains fully HELD-BLIND (battery still running; progress read by sidecar
count only).

- §3: FREEZE-PENDING -> FROZEN 2026-07-21 (prereg SHA 8db4e8a7...)
- §5 Results (RQ2-P3): H1 rho=+0.6244 CI[+0.5941,+0.6545]; H2 slope=+0.7052
  CI[+0.6195,+0.7903] (n=270, run-level cluster bootstrap); H3 RESOLVED=MIX;
  Holm own {H1,H2} both reject. Effect+CI, never bare p.
- §6 Discussion: shared-pool concentration RAISES anonymity (mix), refuting
  the naive funnel; honest qualification/correction of the lead RQ2-P1
  "shrink" as a unique-bridge (fresh-bridge-per-circuit) artifact, per
  note-unique-bridge-artifact.md + frozen mechanism prereg. Mandatory
  disclosure: §7 dry-pass previewed direction (rho 0->+0.838); hypotheses
  were pre-committed two-sided.

RQ3 Results/Discussion and the authoritative Holm-7 stay HELD-BLIND until
rq3-battery-results.json lands. Lead RQ2-P1 + frozen lead prereg untouched.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

OVERSEER-STATUS.md

@@ -104,3 +104,5 @@ RQ2 RATIFIED (operator Andre, 2026-07-20, while blind) — observation-consisten
 - SEALED IMMUTABLY: `output/sor-rq2p3-confirmatory/rq2p3-confirmatory-results.json` (SHA-256 `5fdcb379d8a2…`) + `SHA256SUMS`; `/output/` gitignored → anchors force-added into the STEP-2 stone. Byte-identical on re-run (determinism verified). Tests: `tests/test_sor_rq2p3_confirm.py` 7 passed; full SOR suite 201 passed (no regression, frozen instruments untouched). NEXT: STEP 3 (RQ3 confirmatory — re-probe grid, launch live if up).
 - STEP 3 — RQ3 CONFIRMATORY battery LAUNCHED LIVE (D2 GO, grid UP). Grid re-probed via `grid.write_device_map` (real SSH+docker subprocess probes): reachable=3, isolated_engine_host_count=1 (laptop docker up), devices_down=[] (FULL), honourable=true; `sor-hop:latest` image present (16.8MB). Green preflight: both RQ3 calibration gates already green + a 1×1×2 LIVE rehearsal DELIVERED (real docker circuit, measured added-latency ~9.8s/circuit). New triple-locked launcher `cmd_chat/sor/rq3_confirmatory_run.py` (RQ3 analogue of confirmatory_run.py): lock1 operator token SOR_CONFIRMATORY_GO=1, lock2 LEAD prereg SHA f22331a72e… verified (RQ3 is in the frozen lead family-of-7), lock3 assert_isolated(docker != local). All three armed ("[RQ3 GO] all locks armed").
 - RUNNING (do NOT trim): `executor.run_rq3_battery(live=True)` collecting the full frozen schedule — selector∈{static,random,agent} × pinned churn kp30/steps20, R=30 × C=50 = 4,500 real isolated-docker circuits (~12h est. at ~9.8s/circuit). Launch dir `output/sor-rq3-confirmatory/20260722T040640Z/confirmatory-data/` (gitignored; force-add anchors on completion). Verified genuinely progressing: python PID 51087 alive + live 4-container circuit (client+3 hops) up on docker. **Completion-detection: `rq3-battery-results.json` written once at end; progress = count of `rq3-*/rq3-run.json` sidecars → 90 (3 cells × 30 runs).** Containment intact (isolated-docker only, self-traffic, $0 — local heuristic/random arms; no frontier spend). Both prereg SHAs intact; worktree-only. Analysis (RQ3-P1-perf/latency, RQ3-P2, Holm-7) runs AFTER completion on the sealed record.
+- 2026-07-21 COMPANION PAPER — RQ2-P3 HALF FILLED POST-SEAL (D3 combined paper). `docs/stage-07-companion-methods.md`: §3 un-marked FREEZE-PENDING → FROZEN 2026-07-21 (SHA 8db4e8a7…); §5 Results + §6 Discussion for RQ2-P3 filled FROM THE SEALED RECORD ONLY (H1 ρ=+0.6244 CI[+0.5941,+0.6545]; H2 β=+0.7052 CI[+0.6195,+0.7903] n=270; H3 RESOLVED=MIX; Holm own {H1,H2} both reject — effect+CI, never bare p). Finding stated plainly: shared-pool concentration RAISES anonymity (mix), REFUTES naive funnel; framed as honest QUALIFICATION/CORRECTION of lead RQ2-P1 "shrink" as a unique-bridge (fresh-bridge-per-circuit) artifact — cites `docs/note-unique-bridge-artifact.md` + frozen mechanism prereg SHA 8db4e8a7…. MANDATORY disclosure carried: §7 dry-pass previewed direction (ρ 0→+0.838); confirmatory quantifies effect already visible at calibration; pre-committed hypotheses were two-sided.
+- BLIND HOLD (RQ3): RQ3 Results/Discussion AND authoritative Holm-7 LEFT AS HELD-BLIND placeholders — RQ3 battery still running (progress read by sidecar COUNT only = 3/90; NO rq3-run.json contents read). Lead RQ2-P1 NOT re-litigated (companion QUALIFIES; committed lead paper + frozen prereg f22331a72e… untouched). This stone: $0/offline, worktree-only. NEXT: HOLD for RQ3 — no new stones, no peeking at RQ3 data until `rq3-battery-results.json` lands.