SS3(RQ1-P2): freeze-derived run_index paired bootstrap + loader wiring

Pairing ruling (docs/stage-05-rq1p2-pairing-clarification.md, RATIFIED-by-
derivation, made while BLIND): the frozen §6 L197-198 "paired" bootstrap pairs
the bridge-on (no-pad) and bridge-on+padding arms BY RUN INDEX — the only
balanced pairing the R=30 (§4 L111) interleaved (§3 L97) design supports; the
§4 L108 RQ1 unit is AUC over the (entry,exit) pair set, so the pairable unit is
the run, not the circuit. Prereg SHA untouched (f22331a72e…).

confirm_load.collect_rq1_p2_paired feeds one confirm.PairedCircuit per shared
run_index into the FROZEN confirm.rq1_p2_padding (§6 arm-level ΔAUC preserved);
per_run_delta_aucs exposes the auditable per-run ΔAUC_i; missing-arm indices are
unpaired (frozen R not redefined). Unit-tested on SYNTHETIC pcaps only
(prereg §2 blinding — unblocks CODE not RESULTS); full SOR suite 176 passed.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

OVERSEER-STATUS.md

@@ -49,3 +49,7 @@ RQ2 RATIFIED (operator Andre, 2026-07-20, while blind) — observation-consisten
 - DRIVE STATE: SS1 ✅ SS2 firing ✅ SS3-RQ1 ✅ RQ2-proposal ✅ SS4-skeleton ✅. Battery: 492/9000, RUNNING healthy (PID 2539198). REMAINING GATES: SS3-RQ2 + RQ1-P2 pairing on Andre's RQ2 ratification; SS4 Results/Discussion + SS5 review on (a) battery completion (blinding) AND (b) RQ2 ratification. All data-independent overnight work now exhausted without fabricating or breaking blinding.
 - 2026-07-20 RQ2 RATIFIED + offline loader DONE + committed: docs/stage-05-rq2-posterior-clarification.md flipped PROPOSED→RATIFIED (operator Andre, while BLIND — 0 RQ2 stats computed). Built cmd_chat/sor/analysis/confirm_load_rq2.py: reconstructs each circuit's spec OFFLINE from per_circuit_seeds via deterministic assemble(), derives the observation-consistent anonymity set A_i (uniform/max-entropy → [1]*m_i), per-circuit H_i=Miller–Madow, and the willing-bridge concentration series — feeding confirm.rq2_p1_delta_h (ΔH two-sided) + rq2_p3_funnel (Spearman). Unit-tested on SYNTHETIC specs/seeds ONLY (test_sor_confirm_load_rq2.py, 6 passed; full SOR suite 172 passed). NEEDS-OPERATOR banner removed (resolved).
 - HARD BLIND HOLD STILL ON: collect_rq2_p1_arms/collect_rq2_p3 are BLIND-GATED — NOT run on real data; no RQ2-P1/P2/P3 result computed/inspected/reported until battery completes. Battery: 3816/9000 (~42%), alive, healthy. INSTRUMENT CAVEAT for SS5: bridge-federated assigns a fresh bridge per circuit seed ⇒ willing-bridge reuse is minimal ⇒ P3 concentration may be near-degenerate as-instrumented (an honest, reportable property — loader does not fix it).
+- 2026-07-20 RQ1-P2 PAIRING RESOLVED = by run_index (overseer ruling, freeze-DERIVED — the Holm case, not the RQ2 gap-fill). docs/stage-05-rq1p2-pairing-clarification.md drafted: cites frozen §6 L197-198 (paired mandated), §4 L108 (RQ1 unit=AUC over the pair set ⇒ pairable unit is the RUN not the circuit), §4 L111 (R=30 balanced), §3 L97 (interleaving indexes shared session position); status RATIFIED-by-derivation / PROPOSED for Andre (low-risk, non-blocking); prereg UNTOUCHED.
+- Loader wired: confirm_load.collect_rq1_p2_paired maps each run_index present in BOTH bridge=on (no-pad) & bridge=on+padding arms → one confirm.PairedCircuit (its two arms' pair sets), fed to the FROZEN confirm.rq1_p2_padding (§6 arm-level ΔAUC preserved; decision layer untouched); per_run_delta_aucs exposes the auditable per-run ΔAUC_i diagnostic; missing-arm run indices are simply unpaired (frozen R NOT redefined; inconclusive if too few remain).
+- Unit-tested SYNTHETIC pcaps ONLY (test_sor_confirm_load_rq1p2.py, 4 passed: pair-by-run-index, positive ΔAUC_i when padding flattens, feeds frozen rq1_p2_padding CI>0, graceful missing-arm); full SOR suite 176 passed. No confirmatory record read (prereg §2 blinding: unblocks CODE not RESULTS).
+- HARD BLIND HOLD REMAINS: no real RQ1-P2 number until battery completes (battery ~78/180 runs ≈ 43%, alive PID 2539198). prereg SHA INTACT (f22331a72e…); worktree-only feat/sor-consent-relay.