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SS5: adversarial review of the filled paper — 1 mechanism defect fixed

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Self red-team of the SS4-filled lead paper against the sealed SS3 results
(no new statistic, no raw-data touch, frozen prereg untouched). Documented in
docs/stage-08-adversarial-review.md.

PASS: number fidelity (every §5 figure matches stage06-results.json), Holm
arithmetic (family=7, multipliers 7/6/5/4, only RQ1-P1+RQ2-P1 survive @ .05),
spin/over-claim (no-leak framing for the below-chance AUC, honest-negative
reported with equal prominence, lab-scope disclaimers), blinding integrity
(§5-6 filled once post-seal), method faithfulness (bit-faithful --verify).

Defect fixed (prose only, ZERO numbers changed): RQ1-P1's marginally
below-chance AUC was incorrectly attributed to a bridge "padding stream
flattening" the profile. assembler.py sets padding_applied=(bridge==
"on+padding"), so the RQ1-P1 bridge-on NO-PAD arm carries no cover stream.
Corrected docs/stage-06-analysis.md and paper §5.2/§6 to state the offset is
an unexplained pooled-correlator artifact, explicitly not a padding effect.
Point estimate, CI, gate decision, and Holm outcome are unchanged.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
leetcrypt
2026-07-21 01:02:02 -07:00
parent f4e1975daa
commit 9d0dc5c183
4 changed files with 74 additions and 14 deletions
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OVERSEER-STATUS.md
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@@ -63,3 +63,6 @@ RQ2 RATIFIED (operator Andre, 2026-07-20, while blind) — observation-consisten
- 2026-07-20 SS4 RESULTS/DISCUSSION FILLED + committed: docs/stage-07-paper-draft.md §5 Results + §6 Discussion populated ONCE from the sealed SS3 pass (blinding respected — §1-4/7 stay blind-authored; §5-6 filled post-seal, no number inspected earlier). Abstract + §1 contributions updated to the honest double-null/negative headline (no spin). Zero HELD/BLIND/PROPOSED placeholders remain.
- Filled faithfully to frozen §6: §5.1 calibration gate PASS (linked 1.0000/unlinked 0.5036); §5.2 RQ1-P1 AUC 0.466 anomaly-below-chance = NO leak, RQ1-P2 ΔAUC +0.011 padding-ineffective (moot, no leak to close); §5.3 RQ2-P1 ΔH −0.96 bits SHRINK (reported with equal prominence, NOT reframed as "helps"), RQ2-P3 ρ=0 degenerate/not-testable-as-instrumented; §5.4 Holm table (only RQ1-P1+RQ2-P1 survive). §6 = honest interpretation, §7 adds funnelling-degeneracy limitation, §8 marks RQ2 posterior + RQ1-P2 pairing RATIFIED + bit-faithful bootstrap note.
- prereg SHA INTACT (f22331a72e…); worktree-only. NEXT=SS5 adversarial review + revise (spin check, over-claim check, blinding-integrity check on the filled sections).
- 2026-07-20 SS5 ADVERSARIAL REVIEW DONE + committed: docs/stage-08-adversarial-review.md — self red-team of the filled paper vs stage06-results.json (no new stat, no raw-data touch, prereg untouched). PASS on: number fidelity (every abstract/§5 figure matches JSON to precision), Holm arithmetic (7,6,5,4; only RQ1-P1+RQ2-P1 survive), spin/over-claim (no-leak framing, honest-negative equal-prominence, lab-scope disclaimers), blinding integrity (§5-6 filled once post-seal), method-substitution (bit-faithful --verify).
- 1 DEFECT FOUND + FIXED (prose only, ZERO numbers changed): RQ1-P1's below-chance AUC was wrongly attributed to "the bridge padding stream flattening" — but assembler.py sets padding_applied=(bridge=="on+padding"), so the no-pad RQ1-P1 arm carries NO cover stream. Corrected docs/stage-06-analysis.md + paper §5.2/§6 to state it's an unexplained pooled-correlator artifact, explicitly NOT padding. Point/CI/gate/Holm untouched.
- STEPPING STONES COMPLETE: SS1 executor ✅ SS2 battery+freeze ✅ SS3 §6 pass ✅ SS4 paper fill ✅ SS5 red-team ✅. Honest double-null/negative lead paper ready for operator review. prereg SHA INTACT; worktree-only feat/sor-consent-relay.