RQ2-P3: re-word §7 calibration gate (naive→mechanical mix), re-run GREEN

Operator ruling (Andre, 2026-07-21): the STOP was correct and the diagnosis
right — §7 items 1-2 did not fail because the instrument is broken, but because
they were worded under the naive-funnel prior. Under the ratified posterior the
pool is a MIX (shared bridge → shared exit_signature → larger anonymity set →
higher H). Corrected pre-freeze, logged transparently (no HARKing).

- rq2p3-mechanism-prereg.md §7: item 1 re-anchored on the FROZEN bridge-federated
  branch (injective fresh-bridge → m_i=1 → H≈0, constant c=1/C — a pool draws with
  replacement so it cannot reproduce the zero-variance degeneracy); item 2 B=1 →
  c=1.0 AND high H (maximal mix, "low H" refuted by construction); added a §7 scope
  note (the gate validates the INSTRUMENT and must NOT pre-assert the H-vs-c sign —
  that stays the two-sided confirmatory question H1/H2). Confirmatory hypotheses
  unchanged.
- docs/stage-05-rq2p3-gate-clarification.md: dated deviation-rationale log (cites
  the dry-pass output, no number invented; records the two-sided direction-agnostic
  pre-commitment is untouched; the mix ρ 0→+0.838 is an exploratory finding that
  strengthens note-unique-bridge-artifact.md).
- rq2p3_calibration.py: item-1 teeth moved to frozen_branch_regression() on the
  untouched bridge-federated branch; item-2 now asserts c=1.0 AND high H; added
  all_pass aggregate. confirm.py/stats.py/confirm_load_rq2.py untouched.

Re-run: all four gate items PASS with real teeth (all_pass=True). Synthetic/DRY
only, no confirmatory record read. FREEZE STAYS A HUMAN GATE: §10 empty, no
confirmatory RQ2-P3 cell until operator records the SHA-256 + signs off. Lead
prereg SHA f22331a72e... untouched; worktree-only.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

OVERSEER-STATUS.md

@@ -1,17 +1,19 @@
 # OVERSEER-STATUS — sor-consent build agent
 
-> **NEEDS-OPERATOR (2026-07-21, RQ2-P3 mechanism instrument):** the `bridge-federated-pool`
-> instrument is BUILT + synthetic-tested (9 tests) + the §7 calibration gate was RUN. Items **3
-> (monotonicity) and 4 (entropy) PASS**; items **1 and 2 do NOT hold as their naive-funnel text is
-> worded** — because the *ratified* posterior mechanically yields a **MIX** (ρ>0), not the naive
-> funnel. Item-1 anchor B=50,α=0 gives ρ=**+0.838** (stdev 0.0198), NOT the ρ-undefined zero-variance
-> degeneracy §7 expected; item-2 B=1 gives concentration c=1.0 (✓) but H=**2.54 bits HIGH** vs the
-> fresh-bridge reference 0.0 bits, contradicting the "low H" gloss. Every ρ across the whole
-> B∈{2,4,8}×α∈{0,1,2} sweep is ≥0 (0.00→0.838): a robust mix everywhere. This is exactly
-> `docs/note-unique-bridge-artifact.md`'s prediction, surfaced early at calibration — NOT an
-> instrument bug. **STOPPED per rail:** no confirmatory RQ2-P3 battery, no prereg freeze. Operator
-> must decide: re-word `rq2p3-mechanism-prereg.md` §7 gate items 1–2 (naive→mechanical) before
-> freezing, or rule otherwise. Lead prereg SHA f22331a72e… UNTOUCHED; worktree-only.
+> **RQ2-P3 gate RE-WORDED + RE-RUN GREEN — awaiting human freeze sign-off (§10) (2026-07-21,
+> operator-ruled).** Per overseer ruling, `rq2p3-mechanism-prereg.md` §7 items 1–2 were re-worded
+> pre-freeze (naive-funnel → mechanical-mix under the ratified posterior) + a §7 scope note added
+> (the gate validates the INSTRUMENT, must NOT pre-assert the H-vs-c sign — that stays the
+> two-sided confirmatory question). Deviation logged transparently in
+> `docs/stage-05-rq2p3-gate-clarification.md`. Re-run: **all four items PASS with real teeth** —
+> item 1 regressed on the FROZEN `bridge-federated` branch (unique sig → m_i=1 → H≈0, constant
+> c=1/C); item 2 B=1 → c=1.0 AND H=2.54 bits HIGH (maximal mix); items 3 (monotonicity) & 4
+> (entropy) PASS. Confirmatory H1/H2 direction-agnosticism UNCHANGED (no HARKing). **FREEZE STAYS
+> A HUMAN GATE:** §10 empty, no confirmatory RQ2-P3 cell runs until Andre records the SHA-256 +
+> signs off. Honest disclosure the paper must carry: the dry pass already previews a mix (ρ
+> 0→+0.838), so the confirmatory battery quantifies a dose-response already visible at
+> calibration — stated openly; the two-sided pre-commitment stands. Lead prereg SHA f22331a72e…
+> UNTOUCHED; worktree-only.
 
 RQ2 RATIFIED (operator Andre, 2026-07-20, while blind) — observation-consistent-set + uniform-mass per-circuit posterior; docs/stage-05-rq2-posterior-clarification.md flipped PROPOSED→RATIFIED. Offline loader built + synthetic-tested. BLIND HOLD REMAINS: no real RQ2 result until the battery completes.
 
@@ -82,3 +84,6 @@ RQ2 RATIFIED (operator Andre, 2026-07-20, while blind) — observation-consisten
 - 2026-07-21 RQ2-P3 MECHANISM INSTRUMENT BUILT + committed: assembler.py `bridge-federated-pool` topology (finite willing-bridge pool size B under Zipf willingness skew α; per-circuit draw idx=weighted_draw(sha256("sor-bridge-pool|{seed}"), zipf_weights(B,α)) → bridge#{idx:02d}) + helpers `zipf_weights`/`weighted_draw`; existing lead `bridge-federated` branch UNTOUCHED (still fresh-bridge-per-seed, bit-reproducible). battery.enumerate_rq2p3_cells() = B∈{2,4,8}×α∈{0,1,2} + anchor B=50,α=0, tagged RQ2P3 (SEPARATE fn; frozen 6-cell lattice unmutated). analysis/rq2p3_calibration.py = DRY synthetic-only §7 gate (no confirmatory record read). confirm_load_rq2.py/confirm.py/stats.py UNCHANGED.
 - CALIBRATION GATE RAN (§7, DRY): item3 monotonicity PASS (top-3 conc ↓ in B, ↑ in α), item4 entropy PASS (plug-in=log2N exact). item1 + item2 DO NOT match naive wording → MIX not funnel (see top-of-file NEEDS-OPERATOR): anchor ρ=+0.838, B=1 H=2.54 bits HIGH, all 10 sweep ρ≥0. Surfaced, not reconciled. Tests: tests/test_sor_rq2p3_pool.py 9 passed; full SOR suite 185 passed (lead bridge-federated fingerprint reproducible — no regression).
 - HARD HOLD: no RQ2-P3 confirmatory battery, no `rq2p3-mechanism-prereg.md` freeze (§10 block still empty) — operator-gated on the item-1/2 re-word decision. Lead prereg SHA f22331a72e… INTACT; containment intact (synthetic-only, no engine/traffic); worktree-only. NEXT (operator-gated): RQ3 executor wiring, only after this ruling.
+- 2026-07-21 OVERSEER RULED (Andre): STOP + diagnosis correct; items 1–2 were WORDED under the naive-funnel prior, not broken. Re-worded `rq2p3-mechanism-prereg.md` §7 pre-freeze — item 1 re-anchored on the FROZEN `bridge-federated` branch (injective fresh-bridge → m_i=1 → H≈0, c=1/C; a pool draws with replacement so it can't/mustn't reproduce that); item 2 B=1 → c=1.0 AND high H (maximal mix, "low H" refuted by construction); added §7 scope note (gate validates instrument, must NOT pre-assert H-vs-c sign → the two-sided confirmatory question). Deviation logged in `docs/stage-05-rq2p3-gate-clarification.md` (no number invented, cites the dry-pass; H1/H2/H3 two-sided UNCHANGED — not HARKing, a pre-freeze validation-gate fix).
+- CALIBRATION RE-RAN GREEN (all 4 real teeth): item1 frozen branch labels-distinct+H_all_zero+c=1/C ✅; item2 c=1.0 & H=2.54 bits HIGH vs fresh-ref 0.0 ✅; item3 monotonicity ✅; item4 entropy=log2N ✅; all_pass=True. Pool anchor B=50 kept as EXPLORATORY mix diagnostic (ρ=+0.838), not a regression target. Tests: tests/test_sor_rq2p3_pool.py 9 passed. `confirm.py`/`stats.py`/`confirm_load_rq2.py` UNCHANGED.
+- FREEZE STAYS HUMAN GATE: §10 empty; NO confirmatory RQ2-P3 cell until Andre records SHA-256 + signs off. Honest disclosure logged for the paper: dry pass previews mix (ρ 0→+0.838) so the battery quantifies a dose-response already visible at calibration; two-sided pre-commitment stands. Lead prereg SHA f22331a72e… INTACT; worktree-only.