docs: companion methods scaffold (BLIND) — RQ2-P3 mechanism + RQ3 churn

Draft the companion METHODS data-independent and blind, mirroring the lead-paper
SS4 discipline: methods drafted, all Results/Discussion HELD-BLIND. No confirmatory
run, no confirmatory number.

- Two standalone methods sections (paper structure left OPEN — operator editorial
  call): (A) RQ2-P3 funnelling-mechanism study, header marked FREEZE-PENDING since
  its prereg §10 is unsigned — pool instrument, B×alpha manipulated-IV design,
  two-sided H1/H2/H3, run-level cluster bootstrap, re-worded §7 gate (cites
  stage-05-rq2p3-gate-clarification.md); (B) RQ3 companion from the frozen prereg
  §3/§4 — qwen2.5:3b + reproducibility caveat, churn kp=30/steps=20, frozen
  RQ3-P1-perf/latency/RQ3-P2 gates, Holm-7-supersedes note.
- Intro/Related-Work deltas (unique-bridge/mix mechanism; churn-resilience +
  rebuild-fingerprint motivation), reusing only grounded lead citations plus
  Barton2025 from the frozen prereg's RQ3 DV.
- The only numbers written are already-produced CALIBRATION gate values, each
  labelled calibration not result (RQ2-P3 dry preview mix; RQ3 churn-bites +
  classifier calibration). Results/Discussion are HELD-BLIND placeholders.

HARD HOLDS: RQ2-P3 awaits §10 human freeze; RQ3 awaits operator-GO + live grid
(added-latency is live-only). Frozen lead prereg f22331a72e… untouched; no HARKing;
containment synthetic/offline, $0; worktree-only.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

OVERSEER-STATUS.md

@@ -91,3 +91,6 @@ RQ2 RATIFIED (operator Andre, 2026-07-20, while blind) — observation-consisten
 - CHURN-BITES + CLASSIFIER GATES GREEN with real teeth (HARD HOLD satisfied): item1 churn bites — 1589 drops/1576 rebuilds, every cell fraction-with-drops=1.0; item2 rebuild-classifier AUC churned(kp30)-vs-baseline(kp5)=0.926≥0.90 SEPARABLE, baseline-vs-baseline null=0.518 blind; item3 agent cache-replay reproducible; item4 entropy=log2N. all_pass=True.
 - HARNESS FIX (not detector-tuning, logged): initial pooled-RAW-gap classifier landed AUC 0.779 (<0.90) — surfaced as candidate STOP, then diagnosed as a GROUPING-UNIT bug (pooling integer gaps floods AUC with ties). Switched calibration to PER-RUN mean-gap (the confirmatory grouping unit, cf. RQ2-P3) → 0.926 with a clean 0.518 null; frozen instrument (rebuild_interval_gaps, rebuild_classifier_auc) UNTOUCHED; rebuild-count rejected (teeth 1.0 but broken null 0.64). No fit to confirmatory data.
 - HARD HOLD REMAINS: NO RQ3 confirmatory battery run (run_rq3_battery live=True is operator+grid-gated; added-latency needs isolated-docker). Tests: tests/test_sor_rq3_wiring.py 9 passed; full SOR suite 194 passed (no regression). Lead prereg SHA f22331a72e… INTACT; RQ2-P3 §10 still empty; containment intact (synthetic/offline, $0 local); worktree-only.
+- 2026-07-21 COMPANION METHODS drafted BLIND + committed (docs/stage-07-companion-methods.md), mirroring lead-paper SS4 discipline: two standalone methods sections — (A) RQ2-P3 mechanism (marked FREEZE-PENDING, §10 unsigned) + (B) RQ3 companion (frozen prereg §3/§4) — plus Intro/Related-Work deltas (unique-bridge/mix motivation; churn + rebuild-fingerprint motivation), reusing only grounded lead citations (+Barton2025 from the frozen prereg RQ3 DV).
+- ALL Results/Discussion HELD-BLIND; the ONLY numbers written are already-produced CALIBRATION values, each labelled calibration NOT result (RQ2-P3 dry preview ρ 0→+0.838 / B=1 high-H; RQ3 gates churn-bites + classifier AUC≈0.93 sep / ≈0.52 null). Both confirmatory tracks stay behind their human gates: RQ2-P3 awaits §10 freeze SHA + sign-off; RQ3 awaits operator-GO + live isolated grid (added-latency is live-only).
+- PAPER STRUCTURE LEFT OPEN (operator editorial call — second paper vs folded sections vs mechanism note; not pre-committed). No confirmatory run, no fabricated number, no HARKing; frozen lead prereg f22331a72e… UNTOUCHED; stray docs/.stage-07-paper-draft.md.swp deleted (not committed); containment synthetic/offline, $0; worktree-only feat/sor-consent-relay.