SS3: frozen §6 confirmatory pass on real 180/180 — honest null/negative

One auditable, deterministic run of the four lead-paper §6 tests on the
frozen raw battery. Calibration gate PASS (linked AUC 1.0000, unlinked
0.5036 on §5 fixtures) → AUCs reportable.

- RQ1-P1 (bridge leak): AUC 0.4660 CI[0.4523,0.4798] = anomaly-below-chance.
  NO measurable leak; Holm-sig but in the WRONG direction (not evidence of
  linkability).
- RQ2-P1 (federation): ΔH −0.9587 bits CI[−1.056,−0.864] = SHRINK. Holm-sig
  HONEST-NEGATIVE — federation reduces the anonymity set (opposite of RQ2's
  motivation); reported with equal prominence per §6 two-sided framing.
- RQ1-P2 (padding): ΔAUC +0.0113 CI[−0.0025,+0.0234] padding-ineffective
  (raw p 0.091, Holm adj-p 0.456, not rejected).
- RQ2-P3 (funnelling): Spearman ρ=0, zero-variance concentration =
  as-instrumented degeneracy flagged in advance; inconclusive.

Holm family=7 report-4 (multipliers 7,6,5,4); only RQ1-P1 + RQ2-P1 survive.
Ran ONLY the pre-registered tests — no re-slicing, no post-hoc subgroups.

Method faithfulness: RQ1-P1/P2 CIs use a bit-faithful fast numpy bootstrap
(frozen O(n²)-per-fold jackknife intractable at n=75000); stage06_run.py
--verify proves both == frozen stats.bootstrap_ci bit-for-bit (point/lo/hi/
method within 1e-12, incl the average-rank tie path). RQ2-P1/P3 stay on the
frozen confirm.* paths (tractable). Frozen prereg SHA INTACT.

Artifacts: docs/stage-06-analysis.md (methods-faithful narrative, Holm table,
CONFIRMATORY/EXPLORATORY labels, nulls reported honestly) + force-added
output/…/analysis/stage06-results.json (regenerable via stage06_run).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

OVERSEER-STATUS.md

@@ -57,3 +57,6 @@ RQ2 RATIFIED (operator Andre, 2026-07-20, while blind) — observation-consisten
 - ARM BALANCE (R=30 held exactly): 6 design cells × 30 runs = RQ1{bridge=off,on,on+padding}=30 each + RQ2{1house-N,bridge-federated,directory-federated}=30 each (RQ1=90, RQ2=90; RQ3 not in frozen lattice). Battery window ≈ 2026-07-20T06:11:41Z→2026-07-21T05:24:09Z (~23h).
 - IMMUTABILITY ANCHOR: output/…/SHA256SUMS.txt = SHA-256 over 36361 raw artifacts (sorted rel paths), digest 3fb67c7a…; provenance.json (S0+seed formula, executor SHA ce68d41, engine=docker image_digest=null@runtime, timestamps, completion proxy) + INTEGRITY-REPORT.md. Freeze anchors force-added (/output/ gitignored → raw data stays out of git). Raw metrics.json IMMUTABLE, not recomputed.
 - BLINDING LIFTED for code-on-real-data; SS2 touched STRUCTURE/CHECKSUM/PROVENANCE ONLY — NO AUC/H/CI computed or inspected. NEXT=SS3 frozen-§6 inferential pass (RQ1-P1/P2 + RQ2-P1/P3 + Holm family=7) in one auditable run. prereg SHA INTACT; worktree-only.
+- 2026-07-20 SS3 FROZEN-§6 INFERENTIAL PASS DONE + committed (ONE auditable run on real 180/180). Calibration gate PASS (linked AUC 1.0000, unlinked 0.5036 on §5 fixtures) ⇒ AUCs reportable. HONEST-NULL/NEGATIVE result set, reported with no spin: RQ1-P1 AUC 0.4660 CI[0.4523,0.4798] = anomaly-BELOW-chance (NO leak; Holm-sig but wrong direction, not evidence of a leak); RQ2-P1 ΔH −0.9587 bits CI[−1.056,−0.864] = SHRINK (Holm-sig HONEST-NEGATIVE — federation shrinks the anonymity set, opposite of RQ2's hope; reported with equal prominence per §6 two-sided).
+- RQ1-P2 ΔAUC +0.0113 CI[−0.0025,+0.0234] padding-ineffective (raw p 0.091, Holm adj-p 0.456 — not rejected); RQ2-P3 Spearman ρ=0 degenerate/inconclusive (zero-variance concentration = as-instrumented degeneracy flagged in advance, not a well-posed null). Holm family=7 report-4 (multipliers 7,6,5,4); only RQ1-P1 + RQ2-P1 survive @ α=.05.
+- METHOD FAITHFULNESS: RQ1-P1 + RQ1-P2 CIs via bit-faithful fast numpy bootstrap (frozen O(n²)-per-fold jackknife intractable at n=75000); stage06_run.py --verify PROVES both == frozen stats.bootstrap_ci bit-for-bit (point/lo/hi/method within 1e-12, incl tie path). RQ2-P1/P3 left on frozen confirm.* paths (tractable). Ran ONLY pre-registered tests; frozen prereg SHA INTACT. Artifacts: docs/stage-06-analysis.md + output/…/analysis/stage06-results.json (force-added; /output/ gitignored). NEXT=SS4 Results/Discussion.